artisanwill
Equity & Options Trader, Analyst at The Option Cartel, MS Finance
Intel has potential for a move higher as a likely sympathy play on Nvidia's earnings, backed by heavy buying and call flow. It posted its first daily closes above the 50-day average since early July, an EMA crossover is possible, and huge buy volume shows on the weekly chart. A full reclaim of the weekly 9 average would confirm the springboard setup; the call may be early. x.com x.com
Intel looks ready to break above its $132 all-time-high pivot toward $150, where July options open interest sits. Bullish options flow is building into a late-July earnings run-up, the stock bounced off its weekly 9-period EMA on high volume, and it shows relative strength versus chip peers. A potential partnership with Nvidia adds to the setup, and a weekly close near the highs would favor continuation. x.com x.com x.com
Intel's fading options activity at $70 and $80, alongside a strong $100 node, improves its near-term setup. The stock bounced at its 200-day average alongside SMH and SOXX, supporting a $98-100 target this week; $110 calls are further out and $130 calls are for November-December. Dealers seem to have moved their hedges, though $80 may still come after October 30 earnings. The share target remains $140. x.com x.com
Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.com
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.com
Intel is being bought on the dip by institutions loading up, and could reach all-time highs soon. x.com
Intel's chart points to a pending breakout, with its stochastic about as low as it can get and a clean test of the key support-resistance flip inside a pennant or flag pattern. Heavy call flow today, all calls in the last 20 minutes, is a good sign after Friday. x.com x.com
Intel is overvalued after running up about 5x from $20, with more capex, low operating margins and a run-up driven largely by Trump's promotion rather than fundamentals. TSMC earns over 30% operating margins and is ahead of schedule in Arizona, so Intel has no US fab monopoly. Trump leaves office in two years, and these fabs are unlikely to meaningfully improve on existing 2nm yields. It could still be a great trade. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Intel's earnings beat backs the bull case, with both the Trump administration and Nancy Pelosi positioned in the stock. Per the reported results, EPS was $0.42 versus $0.22 expected and revenue $16.1B versus $14.4B. Never bet against Pelosi or Trump. x.com x.com
Intel's selloff on news from Elon Musk looks overdone because there are not enough fabs or CPUs, so the news won't change its demand and earnings trajectory. A simple three-day rule applies: let it settle, then reassess. x.com
Intel looks expensive even against sales despite its earlier revenue recovery: at 10x sales versus roughly 5x for chipmakers, the screen puts fair value at $40.45-$51.48 against $104.70. This adds a sales-based valuation warning to the prior earnings concern; it is a levels-only comparison using reported figures, not fundamental diligence. x.com
Significant institutional-level dark-pool activity supports Nvidia's potential Q4 move back to its high, then $264 and $280. About $11 billion came in around $222 and $227.50, but the ride may be bumpy. After another pullback, holding the $223-$226 area for several days would confirm the setup; repeated sideways action after break attempts means staying away for now. x.com x.com
