Intel is an obvious buy now that the Trump administration has taken a stake in it. x.com 

Intel's raised capex signals a 14A customer announcement is coming soon, since CEO Lip-Bu Tan said he would not raise it without a customer lined up. Intel's infrastructure is a nearly priceless national-security asset should China take Taiwan, and rebuilding it would cost far more than its roughly $500B value. President Trump is its biggest fan and pushes companies to do business with Intel, though that support could change when he leaves office in two years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.com 

Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com  x.com 

Intel's growing server profit gives its recovery firmer support, though Q4's margin reset limits extrapolation. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3B; foundry losses narrowed to $1.85B but remain substantial. Management guides Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to 38% from 44.1% in Q3, while client sales fell 5%. The 14A milestone alone does not establish external foundry commitments. x.com 

Intel's high valuation is hard to justify while its foundry turnaround remains unproven. At about 59x forward earnings, nearly three times TSMC's 19x, Intel has slower projected revenue growth; its foundry lost $2.09 billion in Q2 2026, while TSMC's Q3 operating margin was 58.7%. A politician's stock purchase alone does not make Intel a buy. x.com  x.com 

Keybanc's reported supply-chain indications of foundry commitments make an Intel customer-win announcement on the upcoming earnings call seem possible. Those indications name Broadcom for networking switches and Google for server CPUs. Intel raised capital after management said exceptional success might require more investment. This is a trading view with discipline taking precedence over conviction. x.com 

Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.com 

Intel's weak guidance undermines the turnaround bet. The whole turnaround now looks like a scam, though the view will be reassessed later. x.com  x.com 

Intel's production was reportedly affected by a pause at its Israel fabs, which should benefit competitors Arm and AMD. Both look good on that basis. x.com