Zephyr
AI & Semiconductor Analyst at Citrini Research
Intel's earnings beat backs the bull case, with both the Trump administration and Nancy Pelosi positioned in the stock. Per the reported results, EPS was $0.42 versus $0.22 expected and revenue $16.1B versus $14.4B. Never bet against Pelosi or Trump. x.com x.com
Intel's CEO just bought $10M of stock at $95, a whale worth following. x.com
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.com
Intel's raised capex signals a 14A customer announcement is coming soon, since CEO Lip-Bu Tan said he would not raise it without a customer lined up. Intel's infrastructure is a nearly priceless national-security asset should China take Taiwan, and rebuilding it would cost far more than its roughly $500B value. President Trump is its biggest fan and pushes companies to do business with Intel, though that support could change when he leaves office in two years. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Intel shares now cost less than its CEO paid when he bought $10M of his own stock, a vote of confidence with shares more than 25% below all-time highs. x.com
Intel's high valuation is hard to justify while its foundry turnaround remains unproven. At about 59x forward earnings, nearly three times TSMC's 19x, Intel has slower projected revenue growth; its foundry lost $2.09 billion in Q2 2026, while TSMC's Q3 operating margin was 58.7%. A politician's stock purchase alone does not make Intel a buy. x.com x.com
Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.com
Intel has Trump's backing and large share purchases by its CEO, and its chart shows a wedge breakout. x.com
Intel is overvalued after running up about 5x from $20, with more capex, low operating margins and a run-up driven largely by Trump's promotion rather than fundamentals. TSMC earns over 30% operating margins and is ahead of schedule in Arizona, so Intel has no US fab monopoly. Trump leaves office in two years, and these fabs are unlikely to meaningfully improve on existing 2nm yields. It could still be a great trade. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Intel is a leading semiconductor name that benefits massively from US government investment and a likely Terafab collaboration with Tesla and SpaceX's xAI. Its chart is forming a textbook high-tight flag. x.com