Blackstone is proving that scale can still drive growth, making it a high-quality compounder at a fair price. Q2 distributable earnings rose 26%, fee-related earnings 22% and AUM 11%, with a $185B data-center platform and over $555B of perpetual capital. Private-credit concerns remain, but diversification, fundraising power and AI-infrastructure exposure strengthen the long-term case. At about 20x forward earnings with a 4%-plus forward yield, it looks attractive, though not deep value. x.com 

Blackstone is effectively an AI stock: it pivoted hard and early into AI, especially power and data center assets that are massively in the money from a carry perspective. If the AI boom carries on for the next few years, it should keep crushing other asset managers on results. x.com  x.com 

Blackstone is now selling data-center loans as opaque CMBS, a self-reinforcing leverage dynamic reminiscent of the 1990s manufactured-home crisis. Per another investor, seven data centers have been packaged into one CMBS, fully occupied by four confidential investment-grade tenants and three small network carriers. Buyers may not scrutinize these securities closely, since the institutions creating them also manage the pensions. x.com  x.com 

Blackstone's planned Google TPU cloud venture gives it early exposure to the neocloud opportunity, with far more upside than already optimistically priced neoclouds. Per WSJ, Blackstone will invest $5 billion as majority owner, with Google supplying TPUs, targeting 500 MW by 2027. The timing fits: inference should be 50% larger than training by 2030, with 45% of inference on ASICs versus 5% of training. As basic cloud commoditizes, advantage will come from proprietary hardware and power access. … Show more

Blackstone's $5B TPU cloud venture with Google looks like the lowest-risk play in AI data centers. Per The Transcript, the venture will bring 500MW of capacity online by 2027 to meet growing TPU demand. Partnering with the world's leading compute user leaves Blackstone the least dependent on outside customers, with the strongest-balance-sheet customer, and the unemployed use Google even more. x.com 

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Ares and Carlyle face a re-pricing, not a correction, because AI capex is artificially inflating S&P 500 earnings. Hyperscaler capex becomes Nvidia revenue, whose profits make the index look healthy, but those are front-loaded accounting gains, not durable cash flows. When the capex cycle slows, the reversal hits everything downstream, including alternative managers and private credit. Per @Fiscal_ai, drawdowns already run from 33% at Carlyle to 46% at KKR and Ares. … Show more

Blackstone's private credit boom may be ending now that the 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has reached +100bps. On the chart, the shares retested their 4Q21 level and made a false move above the monthly 50-period moving average, so a sharp drop is the setup to brace for. x.com