AI financing deals increase the market's perception that alternative asset managers are financing the AI capex buildout, putting their shares at risk in a bust or slowdown. Even if the deals make sense on paper, Blackstone, Apollo, Carlyle, KKR and Blue Owl shares look likely to be pain points in any AI capex bust or slowdown. x.com 

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and TPG remain a great short because alternative managers are structurally rowing against the tide. Portfolio companies carry bloated inventories, the IPO window is closed, the energy and inflation shock is squeezing margins, AI is disrupting business models, and generalists have crowded in treating them as compounders. CVC's earnings revision last week, from one of the more sober management teams with top-performing funds, signals what lies ahead for the rest. x.com  … Show more

The highest-quality private equity and private credit managers, Apollo, Ares, Blackstone and KKR, are back on sale, mainly because of interest rates. They are not as cheap as during March's SaaS debt scare, and weaker names such as Blue Owl are still to be avoided. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's AI capex payback is being repriced, making its post-earnings decline more than a one-day mood swing. Guidance and cloud and AI margin commentary are the near-term tests. If growth continues but the multiple compresses, the risk is duration in mega-cap AI, not a collapse in technology growth. x.com 

Credit tightening and data-center delays threaten the debt-funded AI boom behind the S&P 500. Junk-bond sales fell from $51B in September to $7B in October's first three weeks; CCC yields hit a four-year high, though quality firms still borrowed. Per S&P Global, 146 data-center projects were delayed or canceled, potentially weakening buildout credit. With 40% of the index in 10 names, this is dot-com and 2008 combined; stocks have not caught up, and even good firms may be sold. x.com 

Blackstone is effectively an AI stock: it pivoted hard and early into AI, especially power and data center assets that are massively in the money from a carry perspective. If the AI boom carries on for the next few years, it should keep crushing other asset managers on results. x.com  x.com 

Deployment limits will slow AI hardware spending and expose cyclical suppliers such as SK hynix. Amazon has hardware waiting for power, and Broadcom's CEO said some clients delayed shipments because they could not deploy. Cheap forward multiples can mark a cyclical peak as analysts extrapolate growth. The slowdown could have begun or be a year away; timing is uncertain, so reducing cyclical risk in favor of healthier, genuinely cheap names looks better. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Blackstone's private credit boom may be ending now that the 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has reached +100bps. On the chart, the shares retested their 4Q21 level and made a false move above the monthly 50-period moving average, so a sharp drop is the setup to brace for. x.com 

Blackstone is proving that scale can still drive growth, making it a high-quality compounder at a fair price. Q2 distributable earnings rose 26%, fee-related earnings 22% and AUM 11%, with a $185B data-center platform and over $555B of perpetual capital. Private-credit concerns remain, but diversification, fundraising power and AI-infrastructure exposure strengthen the long-term case. At about 20x forward earnings with a 4%-plus forward yield, it looks attractive, though not deep value. x.com 

Hyperscalers' forward P/E has contracted 20% even as estimates ramped, making it rare to see things get much worse. Rising GPU rents and new lows in availability make the AI fears a fade; hyperscalers should lead. The next two weeks will be gut-wrenching amid the OpenAI raise, Anthropic S-1, Fed, midterms and mutual-fund selling into year-end, but that is the time to buy. x.com