Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Ares and Carlyle face a re-pricing, not a correction, because AI capex is artificially inflating S&P 500 earnings. Hyperscaler capex becomes Nvidia revenue, whose profits make the index look healthy, but those are front-loaded accounting gains, not durable cash flows. When the capex cycle slows, the reversal hits everything downstream, including alternative managers and private credit. Per @Fiscal_ai, drawdowns already run from 33% at Carlyle to 46% at KKR and Ares. … Show more

Blackstone Data Centers brings an institutional-grade data center platform to public markets just as AI-driven infrastructure demand accelerates globally. The listing is notable because Blackstone has spent years taking discounted REITs private, including American Campus Communities and PS Business Parks, when buying whole companies was cheaper than buying their properties one by one. x.com  x.com 

The highest-quality private equity and private credit managers, Apollo, Ares, Blackstone and KKR, are back on sale, mainly because of interest rates. They are not as cheap as during March's SaaS debt scare, and weaker names such as Blue Owl are still to be avoided. x.com  x.com 

Brookfield Corporation looks very underpriced at $37 against management's $67 plan value per share, which it expects to hit $140 by 2031. Brookfield targets $16.8B of distributable earnings by 2031 including carry, a 24% CAGR, as a 10-15 year AI, power and infrastructure cycle needs private capital, and expects $25B of carried interest over ten years versus $4B in the last ten. A 25bp hike isn't material: as rates rose from 0.25% to 5% in 2022-23, AUM grew 33% and DE per share 41%. x.com  x.com  … Show more

KKR is badly mispriced after the alternative-asset rout, and its latest results show operations holding up despite the alternatives and credit overhang. Asset gathering, perpetual capital and fee margins are all moving the right way, and recurring fee-related earnings are doing the heavy lifting while monetization stays lumpy. x.com 

Scaled alternative managers Apollo, KKR, Brookfield and Ares stand to profit if investment-grade bond markets cannot absorb the $1-2T of hyperscaler debt due over the next couple of years. Private credit can then earn premium spreads for structure and flexibility at relatively low risk, as borrowers are under 1x levered and the credit is asset-backed, and few firms have the scale to partner with hyperscalers. Per @PrefShares, hyperscalers issued $159B of bonds in the first five months of 2026. … Show more

Blackstone is proving that scale can still drive growth, making it a high-quality compounder at a fair price. Q2 distributable earnings rose 26%, fee-related earnings 22% and AUM 11%, with a $185B data-center platform and over $555B of perpetual capital. Private-credit concerns remain, but diversification, fundraising power and AI-infrastructure exposure strengthen the long-term case. At about 20x forward earnings with a 4%-plus forward yield, it looks attractive, though not deep value. x.com