Arrakis Global
Global Thematic Fund Manager
Blackstone is proving that scale can still drive growth, making it a high-quality compounder at a fair price. Q2 distributable earnings rose 26%, fee-related earnings 22% and AUM 11%, with a $185B data-center platform and over $555B of perpetual capital. Private-credit concerns remain, but diversification, fundraising power and AI-infrastructure exposure strengthen the long-term case. At about 20x forward earnings with a 4%-plus forward yield, it looks attractive, though not deep value. x.comÂ
Blackstone Data Centers brings an institutional-grade data center platform to public markets just as AI-driven infrastructure demand accelerates globally. The listing is notable because Blackstone has spent years taking discounted REITs private, including American Campus Communities and PS Business Parks, when buying whole companies was cheaper than buying their properties one by one. x.com x.comÂ
Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Ares and Carlyle face a re-pricing, not a correction, because AI capex is artificially inflating S&P 500 earnings. Hyperscaler capex becomes Nvidia revenue, whose profits make the index look healthy, but those are front-loaded accounting gains, not durable cash flows. When the capex cycle slows, the reversal hits everything downstream, including alternative managers and private credit. Per @Fiscal_ai, drawdowns already run from 33% at Carlyle to 46% at KKR and Ares. … Show more
Blackstone's $5B TPU cloud venture with Google looks like the lowest-risk play in AI data centers. Per The Transcript, the venture will bring 500MW of capacity online by 2027 to meet growing TPU demand. Partnering with the world's leading compute user leaves Blackstone the least dependent on outside customers, with the strongest-balance-sheet customer, and the unemployed use Google even more. x.comÂ
Contracted AI compute demand makes four AI infrastructure stocks worth buying at 52-week lows. Applied Digital has a $36B backlog and expects 600+ MW online within 12 months; Cipher Mining has $8.5B+ in AI leases with payments ramping; CleanSpark has a 20-year $6.6B lease and 1.8+ GW power portfolio; CoreWeave has a $104B backlog and raised its year-end ARR target to $18.5-19.5B. x.com x.comÂ
Digital Realty's $3.5 billion Blackstone data center stake deal monetizes hyperscale capacity at peak demand rather than diluting shareholders, so the market's 5% selloff on the news is wrong. The AI power infrastructure trade remains structurally underowned. x.comÂ
Vistra's sub-15x forward earnings valuation looks out of step with AI's power bottleneck and heavy investor buying. The stock is down over 28% in a year and near 52-week lows, making it a possible opportunity; its CEO and several prominent investors have bought shares. x.comÂ
Blackstone is a forever holding because when markets go wrong, as they always eventually do, the company just gets stronger. That conviction holds even with the stock down 23.1% year to date. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure is re-rating as an AI infrastructure supplier, backed by scarce grid interconnections and a 2.2 GW power and data-center pipeline across Pennsylvania, Washington and Quebec. Its move to a US headquarters and Delaware incorporation sheds the crypto-miner label and could draw US index and institutional money. The CEO and COO keep buying shares with no insider selling, and the put/call ratio fell from a typical 0.24 to 0.13 in September as traders bet on calls. x.comÂ
Blackstone's planned Google TPU cloud venture gives it early exposure to the neocloud opportunity, with far more upside than already optimistically priced neoclouds. Per WSJ, Blackstone will invest $5 billion as majority owner, with Google supplying TPUs, targeting 500 MW by 2027. The timing fits: inference should be 50% larger than training by 2030, with 45% of inference on ASICs versus 5% of training. As basic cloud commoditizes, advantage will come from proprietary hardware and power access. … Show more