Worldcoin is worth $2 at most; calls for a return to $12 misread why it got there long ago, which was a low float against a high fully diluted valuation. x.comÂ
CryptoCondom
Crypto Market Commentary
World Chain's tiny on-chain fees and WLD's continuing unlocks leave the token facing vesting pressure. Daily fees are only hundreds of dollars, while roughly 2.9 million WLD unlock each day after July's cut; about 3.8 billion of the 10 billion cap circulates. x.comÂ
Worldcoin's token unlocks, worth around $100 million a month, need that much exit liquidity every month, and the buyers to absorb them have been drained. x.comÂ
Worldcoin's $52.5m capital raise and today's 43% emissions cut should materially reduce sell pressure on the WLD token. WLD has traded as an OpenAI IPO beta asset, and Worldcoin is quietly making material progress on business development and growth. The token sits right around support levels, making for an interesting setup. x.comÂ
Injective faces no large early-investor unlock that could add selling pressure over the long term. All of its token supply is already circulating, with market cap equal to fully diluted value; that makes holding it a healthier long-term proposition than RWA layer-1 tokens with an unlock cliff. x.com x.comÂ
Xanadu Quantum Technologies' lofty valuation came from linking itself to the hot photonics sector, and in hindsight the push may have been meant to lift the stock as high as possible before selling. A post the author replies to adds that a short float drove the stock far past its fundamental value, and float mechanics did play a role. x.comÂ
Worldcoin is gaining real adoption as the proof-of-human layer for an internet full of bots. About 17.9 million people have World IDs, and users include Tinder, Zoom, DocuSign, Okta, Visa and Stripe; World Money adds stablecoins and payments in 150+ countries, and Eightco holds WLD as its treasury asset. On the chart, it has made higher lows since an August bottom; a clean break of $0.67 opens a path to $0.93. x.comÂ
SpaceX buyers at $210 did not do their homework or understand its fully diluted share count. x.comÂ
Falcon's Beyond Global is worth maybe $2 a share in the best case, about 80% downside. Its huge move on a virtually non-existent valuation makes no sense and is largely due to a restricted float. Its borrow rate is finally below 20%. x.com x.comÂ
Ethena is the highest-conviction pick in this altcoin basket, followed by Worldcoin with good conviction. Plasma's dead-cat bounce can be sharp, LayerZero's team will eventually run out of tokens to sell, and DoubleZero is a crime-conviction bet. x.comÂ