leki
Equity Investor, Multibagger Research, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Xanadu Quantum Technologies' lofty valuation came from linking itself to the hot photonics sector, and in hindsight the push may have been meant to lift the stock as high as possible before selling. A post the author replies to adds that a short float drove the stock far past its fundamental value, and float mechanics did play a role. x.comÂ
Xanadu's stock was a textbook trap that has now sprung, falling about 60% premarket as insiders exit. An S-1 registered about 294M shares for resale by existing holders, which brings the company nothing and floods the float of a startup with $4.6M in annual revenue. A multi-billion-dollar valuation was unsustainable, and as a post-SPAC name its hype premium evaporated once lockups and conversions hit. Brilliant technology doesn't make a safe stock when insiders rush for the exits. x.comÂ
XNDU's setup changes now that its 27.5M-share PIPE has been registered as of this morning, with those PIPE shares coming into today up 350%. x.com x.comÂ
Xanadu and Infleqtion are the most interesting and least scammy public quantum stocks, and this is a time to look at speculative names rather than safety trades. Xanadu completed its de-SPAC last week, removing that risk, and fell 14% to below its $10 conversion price. Quantum is unlikely to be winner-take-most since modalities have different advantages, though in photonics PsiQuantum has far more money and bigger backers than Xanadu. x.com x.comÂ
These high-flying stocks look like they are running purely on hope, with valuations hard to justify. POET Technologies trades at 1,580x sales, D-Wave Quantum at 874x, Navitas Semiconductor at 169x and AXT at 96x, while Oklo carries an $11.4B market cap with no sales. x.comÂ
Quantum Computing Inc. is a fake quantum company: its revenue all comes from acquisitions, shows no real top-line acceleration and is not even quantum-related. The company used to be called Innovative Beverage Group Holdings. A $3 billion market cap on $3 million of acquired revenue makes the retail-driven rally a great opportunity to short again. x.com x.com x.comÂ
IQE is hard to call undervalued because its price already embeds a mature-margin scenario two-plus years out. At a 15% margin and 20% yearly growth, FY28 EBITDA is about GBP25 million, worth about GBP500 million at a generous 20x, versus a GBP520 million market cap at 40p. IQE earns about 3% adjusted EBITDA margins versus LandMark's high-margin epi, MACOM's convertible and warrants carry about 76 million shares of overhang, and InP supply constraints threaten its H2-weighted guide. x.com x.com … Show more
POET Technologies is no investment just because it hasn't run yet in a hot photonics category. It is pre-revenue, has relied on paid stock promotion, and has now been wrecked after its hype efforts angered Marvell. Serious photonics traders never thought anything of it. x.comÂ
Sivers still looks unrealistically expensive even though the optical market's TAM has grown far more. Plugging the Goldman Sachs photonics report into models still leaves it overvalued. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors is undervalued because its photonics subsidiary's valuation potential is likely grossly mispriced, though that unit deserves a hefty discount until listed. Sivers Photonics failed to list via a SPAC in 2024, even early in the AI boom; the main wireless business is boring; and unlisted subsidiaries trade at deep discounts until holders see a path to monetization. Per @aleabitoreddit, Sivers, a laser maker for hyperscaler photonic supply chains, is valued at only about $200M. … Show more
Soitec now looks overextended after a rapid run, and a pullback is likely. The AI photonics bottlenecks behind the thesis are real, but it is hard to judge what premium each name deserves, which makes the stock hard to value at these levels. x.comÂ
