Nike's situation is worse than expected. x.com 

Nike's fundamentals have not yet followed, and insider buying by CEO Elliott Hill and board member Tim Cook did not fix the business. Q1 revenue fell about 4% to $11.2B, with China down 26%, Nike Sportswear down low double digits and Jordan down mid-teens. Management warned China could get worse and some turnaround pain could extend into fiscal 2028. Performance grew high single digits, running double digits and North America returned to growth, so Nike is not being written off. x.com 

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike's big-brand advantage from the 1980s and 1990s is over. Social media changed the rules of the game, young people don't follow sports like they used to, and the edge from Chinese production is gone because almost anyone can slap a label on a shoe. x.com 

Nike is a damaged business, not just a damaged stock, so buying the dip is a mistake; a falling price only works when the business is still growing. Sportswear, just under half of revenue, is down low double digits, China is losing ground to local brands, and guided earnings don't cover the dividend this year. Insider buying hasn't helped: Tim Cook and directors bought around $59 in December 2025, Cook and the CEO near $42 in April, and shares now sit near $32. x.com  x.com 

Nike under $40 is getting very interesting because expectations have fallen so low, often where the best risk/reward shows up. The stock closed at its lowest since 2014, about 78% below its all-time high. The turnaround is not finished: FY26 revenue was basically flat, Nike Direct is still shrinking and China remains a major problem. But wholesale revenue grew 6% for the year as Nike rebuilds retailer relationships. This is not a call on the bottom. x.com 

Nike is losing market share to competitors because of a lack of innovation, a sad fall from grace that makes the CFO's departure unsurprising. Total revenue fell 4% versus flat two quarters ago, with Nike Brand down 3%, Direct down 9%, EMEA down 6% and China down 17%. x.com 

Nike's turnaround is looking much longer than bulls expected, and about 17x forward earnings is not cheap for a business growing low single digits. China sales fell 26% FX-neutral while Adidas' Greater China sales grew 15%, pointing to a Nike problem, not a China problem. Sportswear fell low double digits with Dunk revenue down about 50%, Jordan fell mid-teens, and most PACE savings are expected only in FY29-30; Performance grew high single digits. The must-buy price is $25. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com  … Show more

Nike's latest report confirms a structural unwinding, not a temporary dip, despite the EPS beat. The $0.48 versus $0.44 beat came from expense cuts, a lower tax rate and a lowered bar, while revenue missed and management warned of a high-single-digit full-year sales decline. NIKE Direct fell 8%, digital 13% and owned stores 5%, Greater China plunged 22%, and consumers are fleeing to On, Hoka and Adidas. Cost cuts can't restore cultural heat, and earnings power looks halved. x.com