High debt and rate hikes make a big US equity correction likely. Warsh said nothing useful despite hot CPI and PPI after two weeks of hawkish rhetoric, while the rest of the Fed fence-sits. A debt crisis is incoming, and some funds will blow up soon. Big caps are the last leg; the bigger correction could be something like 20%. It is not a good time to buy dips. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

Bank negativity may be priced in for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America; stable credit and an active deal pipeline could bring relief. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are down about 14% in three months and sit 22% and 17% below their highs, respectively; Bank of America lost 13% in a month. x.com 

Bank of America looks set to go bust from losses on its US Treasury holdings if yields climb high enough. Porter says that when yields hit 7-10%, its equity won't survive, and a bank run is a matter of when, not if. A quoted post says it holds $700B of bonds bought at about 1% yields in 2020, down roughly 40% and hiding about $100B of losses, while the Treasury must refinance $9T and foreign buyers shift to gold. x.com 

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.com 

The US dollar faces debasement because papering over the debt burden requires destroying its purchasing power to reduce debt-to-GDP. With no new buyer for US debt, bond rates will keep climbing: debt is $40 trillion versus $5 trillion in 2007, with a $2 trillion annual deficit and debt at 123% of GDP. Getting rates back to 2.5% would require a complete financial reset that destroys the dollar and inflates debt away; otherwise rates will climb to 6-9% in the short to medium term. x.com  x.com 

Bank of America's earnings miss extends beyond its one-time fine, so the selloff may not yet be fully priced. Investment-banking fees fell 11%; wait for fee income to stabilize before treating the drop as merely a fine scare. x.com 

Fears that consumer AI agents like Muse will massively accelerate chargebacks, fee disputes and penalty reversals at banks like JPMorgan are overdone. Guardrails will limit what agents can approve autonomously, and higher-risk disputes will be escalated to humans. Agents will make consumers more powerful, not give them an unlimited license to claw money back. x.com 

Bank of America risks losing its near-free checking deposits if cash agents move idle balances out between paydays. If software forecasts bills and refills checking before they're due, a fat cushion at the bank stops making sense; the bank keeps the customer but loses the cheap deposit. BAC averaged $957B of consumer deposits last quarter, 59% in checking, and paying more to keep cash hurts the spread. Broader transfer authority would speed outflows; for now, watch deposit costs. x.com