SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX options flow turned aggressively bullish ahead of its Nasdaq 100 rebalancing near Friday's close. About $430M of deep in-the-money puts were sold at the bid, mostly expiring the next day, versus about $8M of call buying that included long-dated LEAPS, so selling puts was the dominant bullish bet. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.com 

SpaceX looks due for a bounce because sentiment has become extremely negative and stretched rubber bands snap. The stock fell from $171 on June 30 to $108, its lowest close, on worries about the lockup, high beta and AI, and permabears declaring victory is a contrarian sentiment signal. Large holders likely hedged with shorts or puts on SpaceX or on AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs and Intuitive Machines, and that unwind could be violent. The negativity should abate. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.com 

SpaceX shares look headed lower, possibly below $75, because the business is not profitable at the moment. The stock has hit a new all-time low of $110, and a fall toward $50 cannot be ruled out, though it may take time. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX looks set to rise before its July 7 Nasdaq-100 inclusion, as passive index buying, a low float and options-driven gamma squeezes power the stock. CRSP, FTSE Russell and MSCI inclusions also force buying regardless of valuation; above $225 it could reach $300, about $4 trillion. After that, the stance turns bearish: as lockups expire and the float grows from about 5%, early investors' selling should overwhelm buying for a loss-making company, so long-term buyers could wait a year. x.com  … Show more

SpaceX's strong earnings give its bullish setup fresh fundamental support. Revenue of $14.58 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $8.81 billion and operating income of $2.79 billion beat expectations, as did connectivity and space revenue; 35 launches and mass to orbit fell short. The shares are also pushing through a cup-and-handle breakout. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX shares are being held up by market makers, not real institutional buying, setting retail up to be the last buyers. The support draws retail FOMO and short sellers whose covering adds another leg up, while pre-IPO institutions slowly sell high and insider lock-ups may unlock early. With a float of only 3-5% of market value, SpotGamma calls it one of the most gamma-sensitive markets in a decade; if call buying pauses, dealers unwind and the stock could fall as fast as it rose. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's standalone upside is less clear at today's prices because a potential SpaceX exchange hinges on the premium Tesla holders receive and their share of the combined value. If SpaceX keeps executing at this pace, its upside, or that of the combination, looks clearer than Tesla's standalone upside. Execution remains a risk, and the valuation already discounts considerable optimism. x.com