Sp3cul8r
Stock Trader, Author of Trading Toward Financial Freedom
SpaceX options flow turned aggressively bullish ahead of its Nasdaq 100 rebalancing near Friday's close. About $430M of deep in-the-money puts were sold at the bid, mostly expiring the next day, versus about $8M of call buying that included long-dated LEAPS, so selling puts was the dominant bullish bet. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX doesn't need orbital compute to replace terrestrial data centers; it only needs to become the marginal provider of the next tens or hundreds of gigawatts of AI capacity as Earth struggles to add permitted, connected power fast enough. Mach33's new AI compute model projects compute demand rising about 180-fold by 2040 and AI infrastructure revenue near $3.2 trillion a year. Mach33 sees orbital economics turning competitive around 2030, with US grid deficits worsening through 2032. x.comÂ
SpaceX looks set to rise before its July 7 Nasdaq-100 inclusion, as passive index buying, a low float and options-driven gamma squeezes power the stock. CRSP, FTSE Russell and MSCI inclusions also force buying regardless of valuation; above $225 it could reach $300, about $4 trillion. After that, the stance turns bearish: as lockups expire and the float grows from about 5%, early investors' selling should overwhelm buying for a loss-making company, so long-term buyers could wait a year. x.com … Show more
SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com x.comÂ
Up to $13.4B of green-shoe shares that underwriters can sell over the next 30 days is a wrinkle against SpaceX's index-driven buying. Russell confirmed SpaceX joins its indexes on June 26, which should drive nearly $3B of passive inflows plus buying from closet indexers, with MSCI and Nasdaq-100 additions to follow. The listing also put another player in the AI capex race: SpaceX says it will need to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to reach its goals. x.comÂ
SpaceX's pullback is a buying opportunity because its planned $40 billion financing is debt, so it will not dilute shareholders. Servicing it adds substantial interest expense that hits margins and free cash flow; Elon Musk is betting returns from the newly acquired Nvidia compute will comfortably outpace it. Televised coverage of Dragon's October 8 return could spark a move. Targets are $190, then $225, then no ceiling. Options flow is mostly bullish, though some big calls printed bearish. … Show more
SpaceX's strong earnings give its bullish setup fresh fundamental support. Revenue of $14.58 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $8.81 billion and operating income of $2.79 billion beat expectations, as did connectivity and space revenue; 35 launches and mass to orbit fell short. The shares are also pushing through a cup-and-handle breakout. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Nasdaq inclusion before the July 7 open, one of the fastest ever after an IPO, should bring over $4.5 billion of estimated passive buying from index funds that must buy regardless of price. It follows a Palantir-like post-IPO shakeout from $150 to $215 and back to $165, with $145-165 seen as an accumulation zone and the target still $250+. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares are being held up by market makers, not real institutional buying, setting retail up to be the last buyers. The support draws retail FOMO and short sellers whose covering adds another leg up, while pre-IPO institutions slowly sell high and insider lock-ups may unlock early. With a float of only 3-5% of market value, SpotGamma calls it one of the most gamma-sensitive markets in a decade; if call buying pauses, dealers unwind and the stock could fall as fast as it rose. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's 912 million-share unlock was a supply event rather than a verdict on the business, and demand has absorbed it. AI segment revenue grew 213% sequentially and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.15B from a $609M loss, showing Wall Street pays the beneficiaries of AI capex. The same float expansion should raise SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 weight at the September rebalance, so with insider selling behind it, passive buying is still to come. x.comÂ
