SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.com 

SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com 

SpaceX's Nasdaq inclusion before the July 7 open, one of the fastest ever after an IPO, should bring over $4.5 billion of estimated passive buying from index funds that must buy regardless of price. It follows a Palantir-like post-IPO shakeout from $150 to $215 and back to $165, with $145-165 seen as an accumulation zone and the target still $250+. x.com 

SpaceX's post-earnings surge sets the stage for insiders to sell at better prices once the lockup expires, pointing to a major pullback below $100 around the August 6 share unlock. Insiders who bought at the IPO can already sell, and the stock was already falling after hours. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com 

SpaceX options flow turned aggressively bullish ahead of its Nasdaq 100 rebalancing near Friday's close. About $430M of deep in-the-money puts were sold at the bid, mostly expiring the next day, versus about $8M of call buying that included long-dated LEAPS, so selling puts was the dominant bullish bet. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX shares are being held up by market makers, not real institutional buying, setting retail up to be the last buyers. The support draws retail FOMO and short sellers whose covering adds another leg up, while pre-IPO institutions slowly sell high and insider lock-ups may unlock early. With a float of only 3-5% of market value, SpotGamma calls it one of the most gamma-sensitive markets in a decade; if call buying pauses, dealers unwind and the stock could fall as fast as it rose. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's expansion could dilute shareholders and flood the spot market with compute capacity, making 2027 a potential disaster despite this quarter's results. A large share of its proposed capacity would go to the spot market, unlike Meta's internally used capacity; valuing it as if peak spot prices last forever ignores that risk. SpaceX should be down, not up, on that outlook. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com 

SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.com