Macro_Lin
Semiconductor Analyst, AI Chip Design, Ex-Quant/Portfolio Manager
Downstream PCB makers such as Shenghong Technology are best avoided because material shortages may leave their results weaker than upstream and midstream suppliers', as a post the author replies to suggests. Shenghong's share price has not moved; the test is whether it can pass rising material costs on to its customers. x.comÂ
High-grade PCB and low-loss glass-fiber makers Nitto Boseki, Elite Material and Taiwan Union Technology should keep rising as the obvious workaround to an inevitable memory despec for Nvidia's Rubin Ultra and Feynman. All three have more than tripled in the past year, and some are up over 10x in three years. Switching suppliers is harder here than in memory, which is why a few firms dominate, but it is higher risk and new supply coming online has not been analyzed. x.comÂ
AMD and Nvidia face a growing capital burden from substrates without the benefit of foundry margin stacking. Each is committing $1 billion to the substrate ecosystem; AMD has also publicly committed $10 billion to its Taiwan supply chain, more than three times its Q2 net income. That capital is unavailable for R&D and product development, while their gross margins are flat or shrinking. Intel's gross margin is growing as customers prepay its foundry for substrates. x.comÂ
AI server PCB and substrate makers are among the safest, lower-risk, lower-reward ways to play Nvidia's racks. PCB value rose 233% in one NVL72 generation, second only to memory, and Morgan Stanley flagged PCB as the top downstream hardware gainer. Unimicron leads AI server PCB with 18-22% share; Zhen Ding gets nearly 70% of revenue from AI; Victory Giant is the most direct Nvidia PCB play; Elite Material's low-loss CCL passed Nvidia certification. TTM, Tripod, Compeq, WUS and Shennan also gain. … Show more
As custom AI chips become normal, the scarce asset may be the capacity to build them, since every design passes through the same packaging, substrate, PCB material and manufacturing bottlenecks. Meta with MediaTek and Amazon with Alchip show chip design going modular. That favors TSMC for manufacturing, Alchip for ASIC back-end work, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Ibiden and AT&S for high-end substrates, and Shengyi Technology if AI PCB material stays tight. The bottleneck map widened. x.com x.comÂ
Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board is a lower-profile way into a real FC-BGA substrate bottleneck. Substrates are sold out through the second half of 2028, Blackwell needs over 2x Hopper's substrate area and Rubin 75% more, and Unimicron, Kinsus and Nan Ya are all at capacity while Ajinomoto lifts build-up film prices 30%. Nan Ya is shifting to advanced substrates, with March revenue up 39% to a 36-month high and two new ASIC customers ramping, and the market is only starting to reprice it. x.comÂ
Chinese PCB makers such as XingSen, Shennan Circuits, Victory Giant and WUS Printed Circuit should be the first in AI hardware to see capacity expansion pay off, in the third quarter. Most AI expansion lands in the second half of next year, when supply should balance or exceed demand, so the next two quarters are the earnings window, and firms that expand and profit first will hit new highs first. Thin volume and macro risks, from Nvidia's earnings to the Fed, may cap rebounds until Q3 results. … Show more
Kingboard Laminates is a Buy with a raised HK$60.8 target on an E-glass and FR-4 laminate price-hike cycle and expansion of high-end copper foil capacity. FR-4 prices have doubled to about RMB 300 since mid-2025, with the upcycle extending through end-2027 or 2028. Upstream is short: E-glass faces a roughly 15% shortage with loom supply booked till 2028, and HVLP4 foil a 400+ ton monthly gap. AI server PCB TAM is projected at $13B in 2026 and $29B in 2027. x.comÂ
TTM Technologies benefits from rising printed circuit board prices, a fit for what is clearly a stock picker's market. x.comÂ
