Pegasus
Long/Short Equity Investor
Cboe's fundamentals are inflecting positively and should stay attractive if the war worsens or fails to improve, while the competitive threat won't move serious volume. Many of the policies behind that threat are likely to be rolled back within the next few years, and Cboe has also been a takeover target. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets is the primary winner of the long-term boom in options trading, owning a toll booth that takes a cut of every trade. Once its platform is built, each extra transaction costs almost nothing, giving exceptional margins, and exclusive rights to products like the VIX and S&P 500 options can't be copied. More traders deepen liquidity in a network effect. It also tends to do well when markets panic, making it a good portfolio hedge. CME Group and Nasdaq are strong competitors. … Show more
Cboe Global Markets' drop on futures launches by Coinbase and Kalshi looks overdone. Coinbase depends on crypto while Cboe is half as expensive, and it is doubtful prediction-market players will attract many futures traders. The price is holding support, making this a low-risk entry. x.comÂ
Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group and Cboe are in the first inning of a de-rating, as the rush to defend them against crypto perpetual futures competition shows. With few near-term catalysts to make them work, they are worth revisiting in 12-24 months. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets will in all probability trade higher a year from now, because its selloff overweights a spectacular new threat that barely touches the business. The scare was Hyperliquid perpetual futures: $1.4B of SpaceX perp volume made headlines, but open interest was about $100M and the product only filled a gap before the SpaceX IPO. Cboe is an extraordinarily high-quality business, derivatives are needed for hedging, and incumbents can copy perps, as Cboe plans for BTC and ETH. x.com … Show more
Cboe and MIAX stand to benefit long term as wealth passes from risk-averse generations to more risk-seeking ones. Baby boomers hold at least $93 trillion in assets, per Visa, more than Gen X and millennials combined. Barriers to entry remain substantial, since only a few exchange groups run the US listed-options market and few genuinely new operators have entered in 15 years. x.com x.comÂ
CME, Cboe and ICE face disruption from regulated perpetual futures, which could undermine their business model. On May 29 the CFTC approved Kalshi's US Bitcoin perpetual and gave Coinbase a no-action letter for offshore perps. Perps traded about $92.9 trillion in 2025, and Kraken is launching CFTC-regulated contracts too. Markets see Cboe as most exposed, then CME and ICE; Cboe fell over 17% in a week. Stock perps could eventually challenge CME and Cboe S&P 500 products. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets is an underrated stock. Per @Kalshi_Finance, it jumped 10% premarket after extending its S&P 500 options license through 2051. x.comÂ
Cboe looks better than CME or ICE because it has a net cash position, a strategic-review catalyst, higher growth and better five-year performance at equivalent profitability. The trade-off is earnings more concentrated in its S&P 500 options franchise. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets looks like a pretty decent long-term buy at current levels, according to a quantitative screening model. x.comÂ
Cboe's 22% plunge in five days looks like a dumb move, since blaming perpetual futures from Coinbase and Kalshi doesn't hold up. If those perps were the cause, Coinbase wouldn't be falling too; it is down because bitcoin is dumping, and the perps are trivial to it anyway. Cboe, CME and ICE are being hit in a thematic selloff of financial infrastructure stocks, but the casinos that enable trading remain worth owning. x.comÂ
