Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Cboe's 22% plunge in five days looks like a dumb move, since blaming perpetual futures from Coinbase and Kalshi doesn't hold up. If those perps were the cause, Coinbase wouldn't be falling too; it is down because bitcoin is dumping, and the perps are trivial to it anyway. Cboe, CME and ICE are being hit in a thematic selloff of financial infrastructure stocks, but the casinos that enable trading remain worth owning. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets' drop on futures launches by Coinbase and Kalshi looks overdone. Coinbase depends on crypto while Cboe is half as expensive, and it is doubtful prediction-market players will attract many futures traders. The price is holding support, making this a low-risk entry. x.comÂ
Coinbase's current pullback, like every one before it, lacks institutional selling, leaving the stock very inefficiently priced. Last year's buy volume was the largest ever, with substantial institutional backing through Nasdaq-100 inclusion above $250. It is now basing after twice failing to break its 2024 and 2025 lows. x.comÂ
CME, Cboe and ICE face disruption from regulated perpetual futures, which could undermine their business model. On May 29 the CFTC approved Kalshi's US Bitcoin perpetual and gave Coinbase a no-action letter for offshore perps. Perps traded about $92.9 trillion in 2025, and Kraken is launching CFTC-regulated contracts too. Markets see Cboe as most exposed, then CME and ICE; Cboe fell over 17% in a week. Stock perps could eventually challenge CME and Cboe S&P 500 products. x.comÂ
Coinbase participated in the crypto rebound's trading activity. Its spot volume rose about 41-50% month over month to roughly $61-64 billion, overtaking Bybit for third among top-tier spot exchanges. That counters AlphaTAEdgde's claim that the rebound's volume bypassed Coinbase. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets is an underrated stock. Per @Kalshi_Finance, it jumped 10% premarket after extending its S&P 500 options license through 2051. x.comÂ
Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group and Cboe are in the first inning of a de-rating, as the rush to defend them against crypto perpetual futures competition shows. With few near-term catalysts to make them work, they are worth revisiting in 12-24 months. x.comÂ
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.comÂ
Coinbase faces a boycott by the XRP community after reports that Ripple paid Coinbase to get XRP listed, after which XRP became 20% of Coinbase's revenue. The Coinbase premium flipped negative to -0.03 as the community moved its buying to Binance. The stock fell 20% in five days and 47% in six months, and its best days look behind it. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Coinbase's likeliest price path is lower as bitcoin finishes the final leg of its bear market. @BobLoukas argues Coinbase is bloated and overvalued, with horrible customer service, crypto retail activity dead, customers having other options and an underwhelming Base chain. x.comÂ
Coinbase's revenue suffers because crypto trading volumes always dry up when prices fall. Per Polymarket, Coinbase transaction revenue fell 40% year over year. x.comÂ
