The Great Mattsby
Chartist, Gann Theory, Stocks/Crypto/FX
Coinbase and crypto are following the same pattern seen for years: market makers crush a stock until everyone turns bearish, then it surges. The script played out with Meta when Jim Cramer cried on CNBC, AMD, IREN, Cipher Mining and other bitcoin miners. The moment of peak bearishness has historically been the best time to buy. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's Coinbase Institutional withdrawals into the dip look like quiet accumulation. Whale Alert reported 648 BTC, worth about $51.9 million, moving from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet, adding a different demand signal to the earlier ETF-flow case. x.comÂ
Coinbase's revenue suffers because crypto trading volumes always dry up when prices fall. Per Polymarket, Coinbase transaction revenue fell 40% year over year. x.comÂ
Coinbase is becoming much more than a crypto exchange, with USDC, derivatives, prediction markets, tokenization and Base. The chart supports it: the stock has built a massive seven-month Stage 1 base and reclaimed its 200-day moving average, and when it gets going it tends to move hard. x.comÂ
Coinbase can earn from growing agentic payments through Base transaction fees and yield on dollars backing USDC on Base. Its x402 protocol lets agents pay instantly for web services with stablecoins; cumulative Base x402 transactions rose from 1.5K to 138.5M in five quarters. After a Q4 2025 testing jump, quarterly activity rose from 14M to 18M to 23M in 2026, which looks like accelerating organic use, not just testing. x.comÂ
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.comÂ
Speculative capital may rotate out of the crushed AI memory trade and back into crypto, lifting bitcoin and Coinbase. South Korean retail spent the past year leaving crypto for memory stocks; now the KOSPI fell 5.8%, Samsung 7.8% and SK hynix 9.8%, with Micron and Sandisk also hit. The last time Korean stocks were crushed, crypto volume exploded as capital rotated into bitcoin and ether. Korean retail is still buying the dip, so capitulation could drive one of the year's fastest rotations. x.comÂ
Coinbase is the big bet on who gets paid as agentic AI traffic floods onto crypto rails. Early Bitcoin and Ethereum speculation funded the payment infrastructure agents need, and agent counts are multiplying. Coinbase says its x402 protocol has passed 165M transactions, the SEC approved a five-year Innovation Exemption for trading tokenized US stocks onchain, tokenized equities grew 860% to about $3.5B, and DTCC's full tokenization service launches in October. x.comÂ
The carnage in crypto could push Coinbase another leg lower and break its February lows, even though it is already down about 60% from its all-time high. Anecdotally, few people seem to use Coinbase anymore, with most turning to Kraken and Hyperliquid. x.comÂ
Ethereum's Coinbase discount is as deep as at the macro bottom, so it's time to start thinking about huge spot buys. US institutions are selling into the same discount, as shown by the negative Coinbase premium. x.comÂ