Coinbase's revenue suffers because crypto trading volumes always dry up when prices fall. Per Polymarket, Coinbase transaction revenue fell 40% year over year. x.comÂ
Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Coinbase still has no business model in crypto bear markets, while Robinhood has become a profit-making machine. x.comÂ
The carnage in crypto could push Coinbase another leg lower and break its February lows, even though it is already down about 60% from its all-time high. Anecdotally, few people seem to use Coinbase anymore, with most turning to Kraken and Hyperliquid. x.comÂ
Coinbase participated in the crypto rebound's trading activity. Its spot volume rose about 41-50% month over month to roughly $61-64 billion, overtaking Bybit for third among top-tier spot exchanges. That counters AlphaTAEdgde's claim that the rebound's volume bypassed Coinbase. x.comÂ
Coinbase's revenue growth has turned negative, enough to reconsider the view that its dips are buyable. It may not be worth touching in the near term, even if it rebounds technically. x.comÂ
Coinbase's likeliest price path is lower as bitcoin finishes the final leg of its bear market. @BobLoukas argues Coinbase is bloated and overvalued, with horrible customer service, crypto retail activity dead, customers having other options and an underwhelming Base chain. x.comÂ
Coinbase's current pullback, like every one before it, lacks institutional selling, leaving the stock very inefficiently priced. Last year's buy volume was the largest ever, with substantial institutional backing through Nasdaq-100 inclusion above $250. It is now basing after twice failing to break its 2024 and 2025 lows. x.comÂ
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.comÂ
Coinbase's roughly 14% headcount cut reflects lost market share and deteriorating revenue, not the AI-driven efficiency CEO Brian Armstrong cited alongside a down crypto market. x.comÂ
Coinbase remains a buy-the-dip crypto holding, but now ranks behind Circle. It has lagged amid prolonged CLARITY Act uncertainty, faces revenue risk from the ongoing USDC custody renegotiation with Circle, and miners shifting to AI temper the trading-volume outlook. Circle is the preferred stablecoin exposure because stablecoins are the natural payment rail for AI agents. Basket weights stay unchanged, with a lean toward adding to Circle as the highest-conviction name. x.comÂ
Coinbase faces a boycott by the XRP community after reports that Ripple paid Coinbase to get XRP listed, after which XRP became 20% of Coinbase's revenue. The Coinbase premium flipped negative to -0.03 as the community moved its buying to Binance. The stock fell 20% in five days and 47% in six months, and its best days look behind it. x.com x.com x.comÂ