Coinbase's revenue growth has turned negative, enough to reconsider the view that its dips are buyable. It may not be worth touching in the near term, even if it rebounds technically. x.comÂ
Yimin X
Founder of YX Insights, Ex-FX/Rates Market Maker
Coinbase still has no business model in crypto bear markets, while Robinhood has become a profit-making machine. x.comÂ
Coinbase's revenue suffers because crypto trading volumes always dry up when prices fall. Per Polymarket, Coinbase transaction revenue fell 40% year over year. x.comÂ
Coinbase's current pullback, like every one before it, lacks institutional selling, leaving the stock very inefficiently priced. Last year's buy volume was the largest ever, with substantial institutional backing through Nasdaq-100 inclusion above $250. It is now basing after twice failing to break its 2024 and 2025 lows. x.comÂ
The carnage in crypto could push Coinbase another leg lower and break its February lows, even though it is already down about 60% from its all-time high. Anecdotally, few people seem to use Coinbase anymore, with most turning to Kraken and Hyperliquid. x.comÂ
Coinbase's likeliest price path is lower as bitcoin finishes the final leg of its bear market. @BobLoukas argues Coinbase is bloated and overvalued, with horrible customer service, crypto retail activity dead, customers having other options and an underwhelming Base chain. x.comÂ
Coinbase is testing the same support that held in September 2024, February 2025 and April 2025, and the drop reflects spiking rates, not a broken company. It has $7 billion of revenue and $1.26 billion of net income, yet the stock is down 38% year to date and 59% year over year. Crypto's next cycle has not started yet, which makes this the setup. x.comÂ
Ethereum's Coinbase discount is as deep as at the macro bottom, so it's time to start thinking about huge spot buys. US institutions are selling into the same discount, as shown by the negative Coinbase premium. x.comÂ
Coinbase faces a boycott by the XRP community after reports that Ripple paid Coinbase to get XRP listed, after which XRP became 20% of Coinbase's revenue. The Coinbase premium flipped negative to -0.03 as the community moved its buying to Binance. The stock fell 20% in five days and 47% in six months, and its best days look behind it. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Coinbase participated in the crypto rebound's trading activity. Its spot volume rose about 41-50% month over month to roughly $61-64 billion, overtaking Bybit for third among top-tier spot exchanges. That counters AlphaTAEdgde's claim that the rebound's volume bypassed Coinbase. x.comÂ
Coinbase's roughly 14% headcount cut reflects lost market share and deteriorating revenue, not the AI-driven efficiency CEO Brian Armstrong cited alongside a down crypto market. x.comÂ