Coinbase still has no business model in crypto bear markets, while Robinhood has become a profit-making machine. x.com
Matt C
Cybersecurity Engineer, Bitcoin Background Since 2014
Coinbase's revenue suffers because crypto trading volumes always dry up when prices fall. Per Polymarket, Coinbase transaction revenue fell 40% year over year. x.com
Coinbase's revenue growth has turned negative, enough to reconsider the view that its dips are buyable. It may not be worth touching in the near term, even if it rebounds technically. x.com
Coinbase's bad earnings were expected by the entire market, so bad news has now become good news and the stock should move higher from here. Bitcoin and Ether are also setting up for higher. x.com
Coinbase's likeliest price path is lower as bitcoin finishes the final leg of its bear market. @BobLoukas argues Coinbase is bloated and overvalued, with horrible customer service, crypto retail activity dead, customers having other options and an underwhelming Base chain. x.com
Coinbase is expensive against its cash earnings. At $184.53 it trades at 70x cash earnings and 62x next year's, while the industry usually gets 30x. Fair value is $78.24–$99.58, or 30x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the stock 85% above the high end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
Coinbase is testing the same support that held in September 2024, February 2025 and April 2025, and the drop reflects spiking rates, not a broken company. It has $7 billion of revenue and $1.26 billion of net income, yet the stock is down 38% year to date and 59% year over year. Crypto's next cycle has not started yet, which makes this the setup. x.com
The carnage in crypto could push Coinbase another leg lower and break its February lows, even though it is already down about 60% from its all-time high. Anecdotally, few people seem to use Coinbase anymore, with most turning to Kraken and Hyperliquid. x.com
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.com
Coinbase's current pullback, like every one before it, lacks institutional selling, leaving the stock very inefficiently priced. Last year's buy volume was the largest ever, with substantial institutional backing through Nasdaq-100 inclusion above $250. It is now basing after twice failing to break its 2024 and 2025 lows. x.com
Coinbase's roughly 14% headcount cut reflects lost market share and deteriorating revenue, not the AI-driven efficiency CEO Brian Armstrong cited alongside a down crypto market. x.com