Coinbase's bad earnings were expected by the entire market, so bad news has now become good news and the stock should move higher from here. Bitcoin and Ether are also setting up for higher. x.comÂ
Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
Coinbase is testing the same support that held in September 2024, February 2025 and April 2025, and the drop reflects spiking rates, not a broken company. It has $7 billion of revenue and $1.26 billion of net income, yet the stock is down 38% year to date and 59% year over year. Crypto's next cycle has not started yet, which makes this the setup. x.comÂ
Coinbase participated in the crypto rebound's trading activity. Its spot volume rose about 41-50% month over month to roughly $61-64 billion, overtaking Bybit for third among top-tier spot exchanges. That counters AlphaTAEdgde's claim that the rebound's volume bypassed Coinbase. x.comÂ
Coinbase still has no business model in crypto bear markets, while Robinhood has become a profit-making machine. x.comÂ
Coinbase should recover into a more diversified business when bitcoin recovers, yet it trades as if its only product broke. In nine months it added zero-commission stock trading, prediction markets at $100M annualized revenue, stock and pre-IPO perps, and derivatives at $200M annualized, and it receives about 50% of USDC economics. Bitcoin near $64K sits below its ~$87K mining cost, historically a buy signal. At 6-7x sales versus Robinhood's 18.6x, the risk/reward is favorable. x.comÂ
Coinbase's current pullback, like every one before it, lacks institutional selling, leaving the stock very inefficiently priced. Last year's buy volume was the largest ever, with substantial institutional backing through Nasdaq-100 inclusion above $250. It is now basing after twice failing to break its 2024 and 2025 lows. x.comÂ
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.comÂ
Coinbase is turning from a place to buy Bitcoin into a full-stack financial platform because Brian Armstrong ships relentlessly. New launches include tokenized stocks, pre-IPO perps, options, US crypto derivatives, prediction markets, an AI investment advisor, AI agent accounts and wallets, crypto-backed mortgages and loans against staked ETH and SOL. Base also dominates Ethereum layer-2s, and its tokenomics will be fascinating to see. Coinbase will be hard to ignore if it dips any lower. x.com … Show more
Bitcoin outperformance could lift Coinbase, Robinhood and Securitize as the new financial system reaches an inflection point. JPMorgan Asset Management projects bitcoin returns ahead of US equities, gold, REITs and bonds over the next decade; if that plays out, watch what happens to these equities. x.comÂ
Coinbase faces a boycott by the XRP community after reports that Ripple paid Coinbase to get XRP listed, after which XRP became 20% of Coinbase's revenue. The Coinbase premium flipped negative to -0.03 as the community moved its buying to Binance. The stock fell 20% in five days and 47% in six months, and its best days look behind it. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Coinbase's fundamental and technical stories now match, as Circle's leadership has changed sentiment for crypto names and wider crypto access connects directly to Coinbase's platform. The stock is showing relative strength against Bitmine and Strategy, with an undercut-and-reclaim of its daily 9/50 EMA cluster heading into FOMC that could produce a good move. x.comÂ