Moody
Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research
Cboe and MIAX stand to benefit long term as wealth passes from risk-averse generations to more risk-seeking ones. Baby boomers hold at least $93 trillion in assets, per Visa, more than Gen X and millennials combined. Barriers to entry remain substantial, since only a few exchange groups run the US listed-options market and few genuinely new operators have entered in 15 years. x.com x.comÂ
Options exchanges such as Cboe and MIAX thrive in the late stages of the market cycle, yet still trade near their lows. The market is likely in Phase 3, the late-stage IPO wave and historically their second-best operating environment, and Phase 4, the volatile final phase ending in a bust, is typically their strongest as options volumes and volatility spike. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets is an underrated stock. Per @Kalshi_Finance, it jumped 10% premarket after extending its S&P 500 options license through 2051. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets is the primary winner of the long-term boom in options trading, owning a toll booth that takes a cut of every trade. Once its platform is built, each extra transaction costs almost nothing, giving exceptional margins, and exclusive rights to products like the VIX and S&P 500 options can't be copied. More traders deepen liquidity in a network effect. It also tends to do well when markets panic, making it a good portfolio hedge. CME Group and Nasdaq are strong competitors. … Show more
CME, Cboe and ICE face disruption from regulated perpetual futures, which could undermine their business model. On May 29 the CFTC approved Kalshi's US Bitcoin perpetual and gave Coinbase a no-action letter for offshore perps. Perps traded about $92.9 trillion in 2025, and Kraken is launching CFTC-regulated contracts too. Markets see Cboe as most exposed, then CME and ICE; Cboe fell over 17% in a week. Stock perps could eventually challenge CME and Cboe S&P 500 products. x.comÂ
Miami International Holdings has real operating leverage in its Access & Market Data fees, which carry nearly 100% margin. Options transaction fees are 72% of revenue but net only $74M after $223M of liquidity rebates, while Access & Market Data fees of $46M are 36% of net revenue and grew 45%. As MIAX takes options share, those fees rise straight to the bottom line, leaving much margin growth versus other exchanges. The slide from $57 reflects lock-up selling, not fundamentals. x.comÂ
Cboe Global Markets' drop on futures launches by Coinbase and Kalshi looks overdone. Coinbase depends on crypto while Cboe is half as expensive, and it is doubtful prediction-market players will attract many futures traders. The price is holding support, making this a low-risk entry. x.comÂ
Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group and Cboe are in the first inning of a de-rating, as the rush to defend them against crypto perpetual futures competition shows. With few near-term catalysts to make them work, they are worth revisiting in 12-24 months. x.comÂ
Cboe looks better than CME or ICE because it has a net cash position, a strategic-review catalyst, higher growth and better five-year performance at equivalent profitability. The trade-off is earnings more concentrated in its S&P 500 options franchise. x.comÂ
Miami International looks undervalued at 9-10x EV/EBITDA on adjusted figures, a discount to Cboe, Nasdaq and ICE. It holds a mid-teens share of options trading. The main competitive concern is MEMX combining with BOX in a deal valued at about $2.3B, the first credible challenger group since Miami International, though MEMX alone holds only 4% and the combined group about 10%. x.com x.comÂ
Cboe's fundamentals are inflecting positively and should stay attractive if the war worsens or fails to improve, while the competitive threat won't move serious volume. Many of the policies behind that threat are likely to be rolled back within the next few years, and Cboe has also been a takeover target. x.comÂ
The coming IPO wave led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will create wealth that must flow through exchanges, brokers, wealth and alternative managers and luxury brands, still valued below peaks. Rebalancing, margin loans and estate plans run on the same rails that handled the offerings. SpaceX alone brought about $500M in underwriting fees to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and Nasdaq's fast-entry rule forces index buying within 15 days. In the 1990s this plumbing scaled with the money. x.com … Show more
