MIAX's lower contract fees hurt earnings despite solid volume. Q3 revenue per contract is estimated at 9.8 cents, below 10.3-11 cents guidance; 2026 EBITDA falls to a modeled $270M from $285M. The short-term thesis is broken, but the long-term one holds. MEMX's higher rebates may signal a price war, though management has not confirmed this. MIAX is definitely cheap at about 10x 2026 EBITDA, but fair value has fallen. One bad quarter is no reason to sell unless the fee pressure proves lasting. … Show more

Miami International looks undervalued at 9-10x EV/EBITDA on adjusted figures, a discount to Cboe, Nasdaq and ICE. It holds a mid-teens share of options trading. The main competitive concern is MEMX combining with BOX in a deal valued at about $2.3B, the first credible challenger group since Miami International, though MEMX alone holds only 4% and the combined group about 10%. x.com  x.com 

Cboe and MIAX stand to benefit long term as wealth passes from risk-averse generations to more risk-seeking ones. Baby boomers hold at least $93 trillion in assets, per Visa, more than Gen X and millennials combined. Barriers to entry remain substantial, since only a few exchange groups run the US listed-options market and few genuinely new operators have entered in 15 years. x.com  x.com 

Miami International Holdings gains from market volatility, which management says drives demand for its risk-management tools, and the Nasdaq litigation, the thesis's one unhedgeable risk, is resolved. Net revenue rose 35% to a record $141 million, EBITDA margin widened 700 basis points to 54%, and it holds $660 million of cash with almost no debt. Bloomberg index futures launched in May with retail access next, and OCC clearing improves margin offsets. Market share rebounded to 17.1% in July. … Show more

MIAX keeps adding ways to monetize market activity on a partly shared, fixed cost base, building significant latent operating leverage. The latest is its futures commission merchant Dorman becoming an Options Clearing Corporation clearing member, so MIAX can clear eligible futures directly. That internalizes some clearing economics, improves onboarding and collateral efficiency, and makes Dorman a channel for MIAX Futures products like Bloomberg contracts, at added capital and liquidity risk. … Show more

Intercontinental Exchange is an overlooked, high-quality name in the financial infrastructure selloff. It runs 12 regulated exchanges and marketplaces, most notably the NYSE, and is still led by founder Jeffrey Sprecher, who built it from the struggling Continental Power Exchange bought for $1,000 in 1997. Nasdaq's passive QQQ flows have weighed on the NYSE, but the NYSE is not going anywhere and its popularity picks up during tech routs. x.com 

Hyperliquid's valuation looks stretched against what serious markets pay for exchanges, and perpetual futures have been, and always will be, a niche product with no real moat. x.com 

CME Group looks attractive after it and peers such as ICE and Cboe fell 20-30% in 30 days on the perceived threat from prediction markets and other retail-driven trading. Some of these high-quality market infrastructure businesses now trade at 15-18x earnings, and CME is the standout favorite. x.com 

Cboe Global Markets is the primary winner of the long-term boom in options trading, owning a toll booth that takes a cut of every trade. Once its platform is built, each extra transaction costs almost nothing, giving exceptional margins, and exclusive rights to products like the VIX and S&P 500 options can't be copied. More traders deepen liquidity in a network effect. It also tends to do well when markets panic, making it a good portfolio hedge. CME Group and Nasdaq are strong competitors. … Show more