MIAX's lower contract fees hurt earnings despite solid volume. Q3 revenue per contract is estimated at 9.8 cents, below 10.3-11 cents guidance; 2026 EBITDA falls to a modeled $270M from $285M. The short-term thesis is broken, but the long-term one holds. MEMX's higher rebates may signal a price war, though management has not confirmed this. MIAX is definitely cheap at about 10x 2026 EBITDA, but fair value has fallen. One bad quarter is no reason to sell unless the fee pressure proves lasting. … Show more

Miami International Holdings has real operating leverage in its Access & Market Data fees, which carry nearly 100% margin. Options transaction fees are 72% of revenue but net only $74M after $223M of liquidity rebates, while Access & Market Data fees of $46M are 36% of net revenue and grew 45%. As MIAX takes options share, those fees rise straight to the bottom line, leaving much margin growth versus other exchanges. The slide from $57 reflects lock-up selling, not fundamentals. x.com 

Miami International Holdings gains from market volatility, which management says drives demand for its risk-management tools, and the Nasdaq litigation, the thesis's one unhedgeable risk, is resolved. Net revenue rose 35% to a record $141 million, EBITDA margin widened 700 basis points to 54%, and it holds $660 million of cash with almost no debt. Bloomberg index futures launched in May with retail access next, and OCC clearing improves margin offsets. Market share rebounded to 17.1% in July. … Show more

Miami International looks undervalued at 9-10x EV/EBITDA on adjusted figures, a discount to Cboe, Nasdaq and ICE. It holds a mid-teens share of options trading. The main competitive concern is MEMX combining with BOX in a deal valued at about $2.3B, the first credible challenger group since Miami International, though MEMX alone holds only 4% and the combined group about 10%. x.com  x.com 

Cboe and MIAX stand to benefit long term as wealth passes from risk-averse generations to more risk-seeking ones. Baby boomers hold at least $93 trillion in assets, per Visa, more than Gen X and millennials combined. Barriers to entry remain substantial, since only a few exchange groups run the US listed-options market and few genuinely new operators have entered in 15 years. x.com  x.com 

CME, Cboe and ICE face disruption from regulated perpetual futures, which could undermine their business model. On May 29 the CFTC approved Kalshi's US Bitcoin perpetual and gave Coinbase a no-action letter for offshore perps. Perps traded about $92.9 trillion in 2025, and Kraken is launching CFTC-regulated contracts too. Markets see Cboe as most exposed, then CME and ICE; Cboe fell over 17% in a week. Stock perps could eventually challenge CME and Cboe S&P 500 products. x.com 

Coinbase is becoming CME/ICE-style market infrastructure on USDC stablecoin rails, not just a crypto exchange. The CFTC approved Coinbase Clearing LLC as a registered derivatives clearing organization, putting broker, exchange and clearinghouse for US regulated derivatives under one group. Perpetuals are the natural push, in crypto and potentially US single stocks; when the CFTC approved Coinbase and Kalshi bitcoin perpetuals in May, CME and Cboe shares fell sharply. x.com 

Cboe Global Markets is the primary winner of the long-term boom in options trading, owning a toll booth that takes a cut of every trade. Once its platform is built, each extra transaction costs almost nothing, giving exceptional margins, and exclusive rights to products like the VIX and S&P 500 options can't be copied. More traders deepen liquidity in a network effect. It also tends to do well when markets panic, making it a good portfolio hedge. CME Group and Nasdaq are strong competitors. … Show more

Cboe Global Markets is an underrated stock. Per @Kalshi_Finance, it jumped 10% premarket after extending its S&P 500 options license through 2051. x.com 

Intercontinental Exchange is an overlooked, high-quality name in the financial infrastructure selloff. It runs 12 regulated exchanges and marketplaces, most notably the NYSE, and is still led by founder Jeffrey Sprecher, who built it from the struggling Continental Power Exchange bought for $1,000 in 1997. Nasdaq's passive QQQ flows have weighed on the NYSE, but the NYSE is not going anywhere and its popularity picks up during tech routs. x.com