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Moody

Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research

12 Oct, 13:31Latest

MIAX's lower contract fees hurt earnings despite solid volume. Q3 revenue per contract is estimated at 9.8 cents, below 10.3-11 cents guidance; 2026 EBITDA falls to a modeled $270M from $285M. The short-term thesis is broken, but the long-term one holds. MEMX's higher rebates may signal a price war, though management has not confirmed this. MIAX is definitely cheap at about 10x 2026 EBITDA, but fair value has fallen. One bad quarter is no reason to sell unless the fee pressure proves lasting. x.com

MIAX

25 Sep, 11:32

MIAX is a clear buy because heavy uncertainty is already priced in while the risk is low. Its Q3 volume rose about 1% to 11,112 contracts a day as the industry fell 2%, lifting quarterly share to about 17.1% from 16.5%; September's dip followed a very strong August. Fees per contract are normalizing as management said. Dilution is the biggest problem, with Q2 adjusted earnings up 41% but EPS flat, and perps are a bigger risk for MIAX than Cboe because it lacks index products. x.com x.com x.com

MIAX

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

26 Sep

MIAX

Miami International looks undervalued at 9-10x EV/EBITDA on adjusted figures, a discount to Cboe, Nasdaq and ICE. It holds a mid-teens share of options trading. The main competitive concern is MEMX combining with BOX in a deal valued at about $2.3B, the first credible challenger group since Miami International, though MEMX alone holds only 4% and the combined group about 10%. x.com x.com

Davy

Small-Cap Investor, Archetype-Research, Undercovered Companies & Data-Center Supply Chains

28 Jun

MIAX

Miami International Holdings has real operating leverage in its Access & Market Data fees, which carry nearly 100% margin. Options transaction fees are 72% of revenue but net only $74M after $223M of liquidity rebates, while Access & Market Data fees of $46M are 36% of net revenue and grew 45%. As MIAX takes options share, those fees rise straight to the bottom line, leaving much margin growth versus other exchanges. The slide from $57 reflects lock-up selling, not fundamentals. x.com

Divergent Capital

Private Investor & Writer, Capital-Light Businesses & Special Situations

27 Sep

MIAX

MIAX keeps adding ways to monetize market activity on a partly shared, fixed cost base, building significant latent operating leverage. The latest is its futures commission merchant Dorman becoming an Options Clearing Corporation clearing member, so MIAX can clear eligible futures directly. That internalizes some clearing economics, improves onboarding and collateral efficiency, and makes Dorman a channel for MIAX Futures products like Bloomberg contracts, at added capital and liquidity risk. … Show more

CK Capital

Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research

6 Aug

MIAX

Miami International Holdings gains from market volatility, which management says drives demand for its risk-management tools, and the Nasdaq litigation, the thesis's one unhedgeable risk, is resolved. Net revenue rose 35% to a record $141 million, EBITDA margin widened 700 basis points to 54%, and it holds $660 million of cash with almost no debt. Bloomberg index futures launched in May with retail access next, and OCC clearing improves margin offsets. Market share rebounded to 17.1% in July. … Show more

CK Capital

Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research

25 Jul

HOOD

Robinhood owns the rails in prediction markets, a fast-growing business about to out-earn its crypto trading. Event-contract revenue went from $3M in Q1 2025 to $104M a year later, and Bernstein expects it to pass crypto revenue this quarter, reaching $586M in 2026 and $1.7B by 2028. Owning 90% of MIAXdx and launching the CFTC-licensed Rothera with Susquehanna lets it charge 0.6 cents per contract versus two cents elsewhere while keeping all the economics across 27 million funded customers. … Show more

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