MIAX's lower contract fees hurt earnings despite solid volume. Q3 revenue per contract is estimated at 9.8 cents, below 10.3-11 cents guidance; 2026 EBITDA falls to a modeled $270M from $285M. The short-term thesis is broken, but the long-term one holds. MEMX's higher rebates may signal a price war, though management has not confirmed this. MIAX is definitely cheap at about 10x 2026 EBITDA, but fair value has fallen. One bad quarter is no reason to sell unless the fee pressure proves lasting. … Show more

Miami International Holdings has real operating leverage in its Access & Market Data fees, which carry nearly 100% margin. Options transaction fees are 72% of revenue but net only $74M after $223M of liquidity rebates, while Access & Market Data fees of $46M are 36% of net revenue and grew 45%. As MIAX takes options share, those fees rise straight to the bottom line, leaving much margin growth versus other exchanges. The slide from $57 reflects lock-up selling, not fundamentals. x.com 

Miami International Holdings gains from market volatility, which management says drives demand for its risk-management tools, and the Nasdaq litigation, the thesis's one unhedgeable risk, is resolved. Net revenue rose 35% to a record $141 million, EBITDA margin widened 700 basis points to 54%, and it holds $660 million of cash with almost no debt. Bloomberg index futures launched in May with retail access next, and OCC clearing improves margin offsets. Market share rebounded to 17.1% in July. … Show more

Cboe and MIAX stand to benefit long term as wealth passes from risk-averse generations to more risk-seeking ones. Baby boomers hold at least $93 trillion in assets, per Visa, more than Gen X and millennials combined. Barriers to entry remain substantial, since only a few exchange groups run the US listed-options market and few genuinely new operators have entered in 15 years. x.com  x.com 

MIAX keeps adding ways to monetize market activity on a partly shared, fixed cost base, building significant latent operating leverage. The latest is its futures commission merchant Dorman becoming an Options Clearing Corporation clearing member, so MIAX can clear eligible futures directly. That internalizes some clearing economics, improves onboarding and collateral efficiency, and makes Dorman a channel for MIAX Futures products like Bloomberg contracts, at added capital and liquidity risk. … Show more

Intercontinental Exchange's stock has been hurt by Jeffrey Sprecher worsening its business mix, since visionaries tend to take a view that is sometimes too long-term for public market investors. Mortgage technology could still work out, but given industry inertia it is more of a long-term call option. The MarketAxess deal is a positive, as it skews the business back toward exchanges. x.com 

Financial tollbooth businesses are a great place to invest because they are embedded in the system, take a cut whenever money moves or decisions are made, and need little capital. S&P Global and Moody's, tied to credit markets, are hard to replace; FICO is strong but more exposed to pricing backlash; CME gains when volatility lifts volumes; LSEG fits too. MSCI is the favorite, with fees spread across trillions tied to benchmarks for durable pricing power, and insider buying near current prices. … Show more

Intercontinental Exchange, one of the highest-moat businesses in financial markets, trades at just 17x forward P/E on competition fears that miss a key nuance. The CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures on Kalshi and Polymarket, and investors worry perps could next be allowed for other asset classes. But most of ICE's volume comes from institutional instruments, and ICE invested $2B in Polymarket last year. x.com 

Super Micro's roughly 70% share of direct liquid cooling makes it essential AI plumbing, which the market is not pricing amid its scandals. Blackwell racks run over 100kW, too dense for air cooling, so every hyperscaler scaling inference needs DLC hardware. Q2 FY26 revenue rose 123% to $12.68B and FY26 guidance is at least $40B, yet it trades near 7x forward earnings versus 23x+ for peers. Cleaner governance could rerate it to $40-50; if the co-founder's indictment spreads, 30-50% downside. … Show more

CME Group looks attractive after it and peers such as ICE and Cboe fell 20-30% in 30 days on the perceived threat from prediction markets and other retail-driven trading. Some of these high-quality market infrastructure businesses now trade at 15-18x earnings, and CME is the standout favorite. x.com