Andy Heilman
Principal Owner of MH & Associates
Intuitive Machines looks like a good opportunity after a 73% drop in two months brought its valuation within reach. The selloff looks like space stocks broadly being sold to make room for the big June IPO rather than anything company-specific. Since its IPO, the stock has twice run up and then fallen about 76%, each time finding support at the prior run's base, and it has now found support at that level again. Anything can happen. x.com
Intuitive Machines is mispriced, back at about 2x sales while EBITDA positive. The stock went from $15 to $45 and back to $15 in six months, though the only real developments were an equity raise and one missed NASA opportunity. x.com
Artemis should be a huge driver of Intuitive Machines' growth over the next five years, and at a $2B market cap it feels like early Rocket Lab at $2B. Per Stifel, which upgraded it to Buy, backlog jumped $707M to $1.76B on a 4.5x book-to-bill, led by a $600M+ commercial GEO satellite award. Q2 revenue rose 310% to $206M, and FY26 guidance of $900M-$1B with positive EBITDA was reaffirmed. x.com
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Redwire and SpaceX are too risky to buy at today's valuations, given the potential for a cascade decline. Index-inclusion buying may keep SpaceX and sympathy names bid for months, but in another growth bear market like 2021's aftermath they could fall hard and recover slowly even if the businesses execute, and SpaceX may eventually crash the party. They remain liked, just not worth adding; Northrop Grumman is the preferred space stock. … Show more
Intuitive Machines could lead a big space-sector breakout if the sector gets a strong close, and its 35% insider ownership alongside a 30%+ short position is an interesting combination. Space stocks are erupting again, and Intuitive Machines started moving the same week the S&P 500 last closed near the top of its range, March 9. A strong S&P 500 close with the space move intact would be pretty constructive. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Intuitive Machines is a home-run pick backed by in-depth research shared with subscribers just over a week earlier. x.com
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines are priced as if they had already colonized the solar system, so they look headed one way once the hype rally ends. Together they carry an $82 billion market cap on $883 million of revenue and no profits, while burning cash heavily. Reusable rockets are a cost-reduction story rather than a giant leap. Their long-term potential may be real, but that future is 20-30 years out and does not justify today's valuations. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Intuitive Machines is very cheap for its growth prospects, with 2027 revenue set to exceed $1 billion, closer to $1.1 billion. It should start breaking even in 2026 and be slightly profitable in 2027, a massive improvement from 2025. Investors now see an unprofitable, cash-hungry company, but once that changes, the window to buy it this cheaply will start to close. x.com
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.com
Space demand remains strong, but setups are uneven. Commercial and government demand is accelerating, making space strategic for decades. Voyager and Redwire have very strong setups, though a Redwire retest is worth waiting for; Rocket Lab reclaimed its two-year trendline after great earnings but must still confirm. AST SpaceMobile failed to reclaim its weekly 50-period average despite great earnings and now faces it as resistance, a poor risk/reward; Firefly and Intuitive Machines look bad. … Show more
Intuitive Machines is becoming the FedEx of the Moon, a lunar infrastructure company quietly turning into a defense contractor. NASA awarded it $180.4 million to deliver seven payloads to the lunar South Pole by 2030, and its $800 million Lanteris deal shifts the mix to about 40% commercial, 40% civil and 20% national security. It guides to $900 million-$1 billion of 2026 revenue, nearly 5x 2025, two-thirds already contracted. At over $5 billion, it will be volatile as the SpaceX IPO looms. … Show more
