Michael Wiggins De Oliveira
Deep Value Returns, Equity Investing without Options or Leverage
Intuitive Machines is very cheap for its growth prospects, with 2027 revenue set to exceed $1 billion, closer to $1.1 billion. It should start breaking even in 2026 and be slightly profitable in 2027, a massive improvement from 2025. Investors now see an unprofitable, cash-hungry company, but once that changes, the window to buy it this cheaply will start to close. x.com
Intuitive Machines looks dramatically undervalued at about 8x forward sales, with a $50 price target by late 2027. The market is focused on near-term cash burn and dilution after Q1 earnings, ignoring that by Q4 2026 it could near free cash flow breakeven on nearly $1 billion of revenue. It is aggressively integrating acquisitions to build a space infrastructure platform, so integration and dilution risks are substantial this year and patience is needed. x.com
Intuitive Machines is mispriced, back at about 2x sales while EBITDA positive. The stock went from $15 to $45 and back to $15 in six months, though the only real developments were an equity raise and one missed NASA opportunity. x.com
Intuitive Machines is one of the fastest-growing pure plays in space, with revenue expected to rise 6.5x from $210M in 2025 to $1.4B by 2028. Its chart is also attractive, showing a big consolidation base near all-time highs. x.com x.com
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines are priced as if they had already colonized the solar system, so they look headed one way once the hype rally ends. Together they carry an $82 billion market cap on $883 million of revenue and no profits, while burning cash heavily. Reusable rockets are a cost-reduction story rather than a giant leap. Their long-term potential may be real, but that future is 20-30 years out and does not justify today's valuations. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Intuitive Machines looks like a good opportunity after a 73% drop in two months brought its valuation within reach. The selloff looks like space stocks broadly being sold to make room for the big June IPO rather than anything company-specific. Since its IPO, the stock has twice run up and then fallen about 76%, each time finding support at the prior run's base, and it has now found support at that level again. Anything can happen. x.com
Intuitive Machines is a home-run pick backed by in-depth research shared with subscribers just over a week earlier. x.com
Artemis should be a huge driver of Intuitive Machines' growth over the next five years, and at a $2B market cap it feels like early Rocket Lab at $2B. Per Stifel, which upgraded it to Buy, backlog jumped $707M to $1.76B on a 4.5x book-to-bill, led by a $600M+ commercial GEO satellite award. Q2 revenue rose 310% to $206M, and FY26 guidance of $900M-$1B with positive EBITDA was reaffirmed. x.com
Intuitive Machines could very likely reach a $10B market cap within three to five years if its Near Space Network succeeds. Much depends on the Near Space Network and its lunar build. x.com
Intuitive Machines is becoming the FedEx of the Moon, a lunar infrastructure company quietly turning into a defense contractor. NASA awarded it $180.4 million to deliver seven payloads to the lunar South Pole by 2030, and its $800 million Lanteris deal shifts the mix to about 40% commercial, 40% civil and 20% national security. It guides to $900 million-$1 billion of 2026 revenue, nearly 5x 2025, two-thirds already contracted. At over $5 billion, it will be volatile as the SpaceX IPO looms. … Show more
