IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com  … Show more

Cadence's IBD composite and EPS ratings of 90 support its standing as arguably the best in the 'making chips better' group after ASML. The screen estimates 2026 EPS growth of 18% and sales growth of 21%. Its chart is near a breakout after a long pullback. x.com 

Shin-Etsu Chemical is the smarter way to play wafer-fab expansion because it holds a duopoly in EUV photoresists, and more advanced logic means more EUV layers and therefore more photoresist. ASML is a weaker play: when TSMC shifts capacity, that is the last machine it expands orders for, and any increase is incremental to ASML's bottom line. Shin-Etsu is the only wafer-fab-equipment-adjacent holding. x.com  x.com 

Topco Scientific is cheap at about 15x earnings because it is a decent company riding a tailwind, and it still has legs after starting to run. It is Shin-Etsu's primary agent for semiconductor materials such as silicon wafers and photoresists in Taiwan and parts of China, and has a silicone JV with Shin-Etsu. Management expects double-digit revenue growth this year, with exposure to CMP slurries, water treatment and advanced packaging. Such companies tend to outperform with half the volatility. … Show more

All roads lead to Shin-Etsu as the US weighs a polysilicon price floor and tariffs to protect domestic producers, including Hemlock Semiconductor, its joint venture with Corning, per Reuters via Wall St Engine. Polysilicon is a critical input for solar panels and chips, and China controls about 80% of global solar manufacturing capacity; the proposal is not yet final. x.com 

LPKF faces mostly lumpy, cancelable pilot-line revenue until 2029, while the market already prices in much of its glass substrate option. Volume demand for its glass equipment hinges on TSMC and NVIDIA choosing glass for CoPoS panel packaging; that wave lands around 2028-29 and could slip to end-2030 on warpage and yield issues. Absolics' and Semco's 2027 plans are qualification. The real signals are TSMC's CoPoS tool-vendor selection and an LPKF order above EUR 10M naming a Tier-1 customer. … Show more

Silicon wafer makers GlobalWafers, SUMCO, Shin-Etsu and Siltronic face a price upcycle as AI demand meets locked supply. Per SemiAnalysis, sub-7nm logic epi-wafer demand nears 1 million a month by 2028, tightening faster than expected, while HBM's heavy wafer use absorbs the glut. The four's capex is about 30% of its 2023 peak and epi reactor lead times top six months, so new capacity arrives 2H27 at earliest; new epi contracts for 2028 could price about 20% higher. x.com 

Amtech Systems is a turnaround bet on a savvy CEO who has repositioned it toward advanced AI packaging. Since Bob Daigle took over in 2023, a move to a largely fabless model has lifted gross margin from -2% to 48%, after seven factories, cyclical markets and an Entrepix write-down drove losses. Its reflow ovens see strong demand for GPU and HBM assembly, and panel-level packaging could add orders. Risks: it is tiny against Heller, Rehm and cheap Chinese rivals, and a shift to hybrid bonding. … Show more

Corning remains a long-term AI infrastructure winner even after Morgan Stanley's cooling note, as demand for fiber, optical materials and future glass substrates keeps growing. Per Morgan Stanley, the roughly 40% one-month rally outran fundamentals, driven by Fujikura's raised outlook, the GlassBridge fiber-to-chip platform, Nvidia long-haul fiber rumors and short covering, and high Q2 expectations could add volatility. GlassBridge gives Corning more room in next-generation optical links. x.com 

Schmid Group is moments from dilution, with almost no room for error in its cash runway. That financial position is critical to any comparison of glass-substrate plays, even as a post the author replies to argues upstream suppliers gain pricing power after Intel's CFO called glass a margin headwind. x.com