LPKF's stock got ahead of itself, and at around €12 it is worth watching rather than buying, becoming seriously interesting below €10. The glass-substrate thesis is intact: LPKF now sizes its 2030 addressable market at €1.7B, up from €500M, targets 70% share, and is negotiating 2027 ramp orders. But H1 revenue was only €36.5M with negative EBIT and free cash flow, and a steeper ramp could need capital. Next, LPKF must prove it has won a place in the production equipment stack. x.com 

LPKF's management credibility is the biggest concern after years of overpromising. It missed 2024 and 2025 guidance and is on track to miss 2026, needing H2 revenue of twice its €34.7 million backlog. Expected Q2 production orders for LIDE systems did not arrive and were pushed to H2, and its €1.7 billion advanced-packaging TAM assumes everyone switches fully to glass in 2030. Its technology is great and it leads in TGV, but glass substrates need a couple more years to penetrate meaningfully. … Show more

LPKF's volume ramp likely tracks glass-core substrate mass-production timelines, which have just slipped. Samsung Electro-Mechanics pushed its start to 2028 from H2 2027 after customer reliability evaluations of prototypes bottlenecked, and SKC's Absolics moved to H1 2027 from H2 2026, per TrendForce. Timeline shifts aren't always good news, but the shift to glass-core substrates still feels imminent. x.com 

LPKF looks a bit expensive after its recent share price run, even on @BrainyMarsupial's bullish meeting notes, which see at least three players ordering glass-substrate machines this year. Revenue remains difficult to forecast and a higher valuation cannot be counted on, which makes it hard to add more. x.com  x.com 

LPKF's glass-substrate story got priced in far ahead of reality, and high-volume scaling is still a 2027+ story. Its raised €1.7B 2030 TAM overstates the obtainable market once competitors, yields and dual-sourcing kick in, and the CEO said it is premature to call a supply-chain breakthrough. H1 revenue fell 38.3% to €36.5M as solar collapsed, adjusted EBIT was -€10.4M, and restructuring costs eat 3-4% of revenue. LIDE remains strategically important; 2028 margin execution is the thing to watch. … Show more

LPKF Laser is a bottleneck supplier for glass substrates, the next-generation AI packaging material Intel, Samsung and TSMC are piloting. Glass cracks when drilled, and LPKF's LIDE is one of very few processes that structure glass at production scale without cracking, so no glass ecosystem gets built without a tool like it. Management says the question is now when the ramp begins, not whether. Besi trades at 77x EBITDA on advanced packaging; upstream names trade at fractions of that. x.com 

LPKF Laser & Electronics and Schmid Group shares should deflate fast because glass-core substrates are not expected to be adopted until 2030, per @AtlasShrug1 citing @pequityresearch, a long wait for any ramp. x.com 

TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.com 

LPKF Laser is a small-priced option on glass substrates becoming the next generation of AI chip packaging, with 4-10x upside if glass wins. It owns LIDE, the only working laser process that drills precise holes in glass without cracking it. Intel has committed to high-volume glass by 2030, Samsung is piloting and TSMC is evaluating. At a 293M EUR market cap it is pre-revenue inflection with no meaningful EBITDA, which is the point of the bet. x.com 

LPKF's core business is terrible, and the CEO's new LIDE target, raising its 2030 addressable market from €500 million to €1.7 billion, shifts attention to an area where nothing can yet be disproven. There is still no meaningful sign of LIDE in the order book. Revenue fell to €36.5 million from €59.2 million, order intake more than halved to €19.9 million, and adjusted EBIT fell to −€10.4 million. Electronics, carrier of the future narrative, grew just €0.6 million and lost the most. x.com