LPKF's core business is terrible, and the CEO's new LIDE target, raising its 2030 addressable market from €500 million to €1.7 billion, shifts attention to an area where nothing can yet be disproven. There is still no meaningful sign of LIDE in the order book. Revenue fell to €36.5 million from €59.2 million, order intake more than halved to €19.9 million, and adjusted EBIT fell to −€10.4 million. Electronics, carrier of the future narrative, grew just €0.6 million and lost the most. x.com 

LPKF's management credibility is the biggest concern after years of overpromising. It missed 2024 and 2025 guidance and is on track to miss 2026, needing H2 revenue of twice its €34.7 million backlog. Expected Q2 production orders for LIDE systems did not arrive and were pushed to H2, and its €1.7 billion advanced-packaging TAM assumes everyone switches fully to glass in 2030. Its technology is great and it leads in TGV, but glass substrates need a couple more years to penetrate meaningfully. … Show more

LPKF Laser & Electronics is one of the most asymmetric bets in the AI optics chain at about 7.8 times EV to gross profit, while peers trade at premium multiples. Co-packaged optics needs glass substrates, and its LIDE tools lead in crack-free through-glass vias; over 80% of major players preparing glass ramps are qualifying with its gear. Nvidia's Feynman era should multiply glass volumes and tool sales. Q1 revenue fell 27% on a temporary solar slump, and glass is still pre-volume. x.com 

LPKF's stock got ahead of itself, and at around €12 it is worth watching rather than buying, becoming seriously interesting below €10. The glass-substrate thesis is intact: LPKF now sizes its 2030 addressable market at €1.7B, up from €500M, targets 70% share, and is negotiating 2027 ramp orders. But H1 revenue was only €36.5M with negative EBIT and free cash flow, and a steeper ramp could need capital. Next, LPKF must prove it has won a place in the production equipment stack. x.com 

LPKF looks a bit expensive after its recent share price run, even on @BrainyMarsupial's bullish meeting notes, which see at least three players ordering glass-substrate machines this year. Revenue remains difficult to forecast and a higher valuation cannot be counted on, which makes it hard to add more. x.com  x.com 

LPKF's glass-substrate thesis has barely started even after the stock's run. Its LIDE process drills defect-free through-glass vias at production speed with aspect ratios up to 1:50, and glass is the only material that solves CTE mismatch, dielectric loss and warpage at once, where silicon interposers cannot scale. Over 80% of major players chose LPKF equipment for validation, a de facto standard; first production orders came in Q1 2026, and the 2027 mass-production ramp hits the P&L hard. x.com 

LPKF faces mostly lumpy, cancelable pilot-line revenue until 2029, while the market already prices in much of its glass substrate option. Volume demand for its glass equipment hinges on TSMC and NVIDIA choosing glass for CoPoS panel packaging; that wave lands around 2028-29 and could slip to end-2030 on warpage and yield issues. Absolics' and Semco's 2027 plans are qualification. The real signals are TSMC's CoPoS tool-vendor selection and an LPKF order above EUR 10M naming a Tier-1 customer. … Show more

LPKF Laser & Electronics and Schmid Group shares should deflate fast because glass-core substrates are not expected to be adopted until 2030, per @AtlasShrug1 citing @pequityresearch, a long wait for any ramp. x.com 

LPKF could re-rate if its H2 2026 volume ramp arrives, as a named LIDE production order would validate the 2027 glass-core timeline and its new €1.7B 2030 market estimate. H1 was ugly, with revenue down 38.3% and cash at €4.0M, but FY26 guidance of €105-120M implies roughly doubling in H2 against a €34.7M backlog. Samsung Electro-Mechanics, JNTC and Absolics target glass-core production in 2027, when TSMC has a CoPoS pilot line slated. Hold as a moonshot; trim on a dilutive raise before orders. … Show more

LPKF's risk-to-reward is no longer attractive after a 60% run in a few days with no fundamental change at the company. With the valuation that much higher, the risk is now greater than the reward, even though the upside could still be huge. The thesis itself is intact, and quarterly earnings don't change it: the ramp that matters starts next year. x.com  x.com