LPKF's glass-substrate story got priced in far ahead of reality, and high-volume scaling is still a 2027+ story. Its raised €1.7B 2030 TAM overstates the obtainable market once competitors, yields and dual-sourcing kick in, and the CEO said it is premature to call a supply-chain breakthrough. H1 revenue fell 38.3% to €36.5M as solar collapsed, adjusted EBIT was -€10.4M, and restructuring costs eat 3-4% of revenue. LIDE remains strategically important; 2028 margin execution is the thing to watch. … Show more

LPKF's stock got ahead of itself, and at around €12 it is worth watching rather than buying, becoming seriously interesting below €10. The glass-substrate thesis is intact: LPKF now sizes its 2030 addressable market at €1.7B, up from €500M, targets 70% share, and is negotiating 2027 ramp orders. But H1 revenue was only €36.5M with negative EBIT and free cash flow, and a steeper ramp could need capital. Next, LPKF must prove it has won a place in the production equipment stack. x.com 

LPKF's glass-substrate thesis has barely started even after the stock's run. Its LIDE process drills defect-free through-glass vias at production speed with aspect ratios up to 1:50, and glass is the only material that solves CTE mismatch, dielectric loss and warpage at once, where silicon interposers cannot scale. Over 80% of major players chose LPKF equipment for validation, a de facto standard; first production orders came in Q1 2026, and the 2027 mass-production ramp hits the P&L hard. x.com 

LPKF's core business is terrible, and the CEO's new LIDE target, raising its 2030 addressable market from €500 million to €1.7 billion, shifts attention to an area where nothing can yet be disproven. There is still no meaningful sign of LIDE in the order book. Revenue fell to €36.5 million from €59.2 million, order intake more than halved to €19.9 million, and adjusted EBIT fell to −€10.4 million. Electronics, carrier of the future narrative, grew just €0.6 million and lost the most. x.com 

LPKF faces mostly lumpy, cancelable pilot-line revenue until 2029, while the market already prices in much of its glass substrate option. Volume demand for its glass equipment hinges on TSMC and NVIDIA choosing glass for CoPoS panel packaging; that wave lands around 2028-29 and could slip to end-2030 on warpage and yield issues. Absolics' and Semco's 2027 plans are qualification. The real signals are TSMC's CoPoS tool-vendor selection and an LPKF order above EUR 10M naming a Tier-1 customer. … Show more

LPKF Laser is a bottleneck supplier for glass substrates, the next-generation AI packaging material Intel, Samsung and TSMC are piloting. Glass cracks when drilled, and LPKF's LIDE is one of very few processes that structure glass at production scale without cracking, so no glass ecosystem gets built without a tool like it. Management says the question is now when the ramp begins, not whether. Besi trades at 77x EBITDA on advanced packaging; upstream names trade at fractions of that. x.com 

LPKF looks a bit expensive after its recent share price run, even on @BrainyMarsupial's bullish meeting notes, which see at least three players ordering glass-substrate machines this year. Revenue remains difficult to forecast and a higher valuation cannot be counted on, which makes it hard to add more. x.com  x.com 

LPKF Laser & Electronics and Schmid Group shares should deflate fast because glass-core substrates are not expected to be adopted until 2030, per @AtlasShrug1 citing @pequityresearch, a long wait for any ramp. x.com 

LPKF Laser & Electronics is a bullish idea, set out in a brief write-up. x.com 

LPKF's risk-to-reward is no longer attractive after a 60% run in a few days with no fundamental change at the company. With the valuation that much higher, the risk is now greater than the reward, even though the upside could still be huge. The thesis itself is intact, and quarterly earnings don't change it: the ramp that matters starts next year. x.com  x.com