J Keynes
Growth Investment Research
LPKF's stock got ahead of itself, and at around €12 it is worth watching rather than buying, becoming seriously interesting below €10. The glass-substrate thesis is intact: LPKF now sizes its 2030 addressable market at €1.7B, up from €500M, targets 70% share, and is negotiating 2027 ramp orders. But H1 revenue was only €36.5M with negative EBIT and free cash flow, and a steeper ramp could need capital. Next, LPKF must prove it has won a place in the production equipment stack. x.com
LPKF CEO Klaus Fiedler bought shares on the dip at €21, adding to many insider buys with no sales, a sign insiders see a much higher market cap ahead. The roughly €42,000 purchase is about 17-20% of his after-tax pay, given lower European CEO salaries and German taxes near 50%, so it is significant. The case rests on LPKF's LIDE process for through-glass vias in AI chip packaging, with an estimated 70-80% share, and first production orders guided for Q2 2026 as the path to a €1B+ market cap. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
LPKF looks a bit expensive after its recent share price run, even on @BrainyMarsupial's bullish meeting notes, which see at least three players ordering glass-substrate machines this year. Revenue remains difficult to forecast and a higher valuation cannot be counted on, which makes it hard to add more. x.com x.com
LPKF's glass-substrate story got priced in far ahead of reality, and high-volume scaling is still a 2027+ story. Its raised €1.7B 2030 TAM overstates the obtainable market once competitors, yields and dual-sourcing kick in, and the CEO said it is premature to call a supply-chain breakthrough. H1 revenue fell 38.3% to €36.5M as solar collapsed, adjusted EBIT was -€10.4M, and restructuring costs eat 3-4% of revenue. LIDE remains strategically important; 2028 margin execution is the thing to watch. … Show more
LPKF could re-rate if its H2 2026 volume ramp arrives, as a named LIDE production order would validate the 2027 glass-core timeline and its new €1.7B 2030 market estimate. H1 was ugly, with revenue down 38.3% and cash at €4.0M, but FY26 guidance of €105-120M implies roughly doubling in H2 against a €34.7M backlog. Samsung Electro-Mechanics, JNTC and Absolics target glass-core production in 2027, when TSMC has a CoPoS pilot line slated. Hold as a moonshot; trim on a dilutive raise before orders. … Show more
LPKF's management credibility is the biggest concern after years of overpromising. It missed 2024 and 2025 guidance and is on track to miss 2026, needing H2 revenue of twice its €34.7 million backlog. Expected Q2 production orders for LIDE systems did not arrive and were pushed to H2, and its €1.7 billion advanced-packaging TAM assumes everyone switches fully to glass in 2030. Its technology is great and it leads in TGV, but glass substrates need a couple more years to penetrate meaningfully. … Show more
LPKF's core business is terrible, and the CEO's new LIDE target, raising its 2030 addressable market from €500 million to €1.7 billion, shifts attention to an area where nothing can yet be disproven. There is still no meaningful sign of LIDE in the order book. Revenue fell to €36.5 million from €59.2 million, order intake more than halved to €19.9 million, and adjusted EBIT fell to −€10.4 million. Electronics, carrier of the future narrative, grew just €0.6 million and lost the most. x.com
LPKF's glass-substrate thesis has barely started even after the stock's run. Its LIDE process drills defect-free through-glass vias at production speed with aspect ratios up to 1:50, and glass is the only material that solves CTE mismatch, dielectric loss and warpage at once, where silicon interposers cannot scale. Over 80% of major players chose LPKF equipment for validation, a de facto standard; first production orders came in Q1 2026, and the 2027 mass-production ramp hits the P&L hard. x.com
LPKF faces mostly lumpy, cancelable pilot-line revenue until 2029, while the market already prices in much of its glass substrate option. Volume demand for its glass equipment hinges on TSMC and NVIDIA choosing glass for CoPoS panel packaging; that wave lands around 2028-29 and could slip to end-2030 on warpage and yield issues. Absolics' and Semco's 2027 plans are qualification. The real signals are TSMC's CoPoS tool-vendor selection and an LPKF order above EUR 10M naming a Tier-1 customer. … Show more
LPKF Laser & Electronics and Schmid Group shares should deflate fast because glass-core substrates are not expected to be adopted until 2030, per @AtlasShrug1 citing @pequityresearch, a long wait for any ramp. x.com
LPKF Laser & Electronics could still reach a $3–4 billion valuation by 2028–2029, though it now looks close to fairly valued in the near term. The path will be volatile: machine sales are lumpy, the machines last a long time, and the company still needs to raise equity before it can deliver all the machines it hopes to sell. x.com x.com
LPKF's risk-to-reward is no longer attractive after a 60% run in a few days with no fundamental change at the company. With the valuation that much higher, the risk is now greater than the reward, even though the upside could still be huge. The thesis itself is intact, and quarterly earnings don't change it: the ramp that matters starts next year. x.com x.com
