Alex A.C.
Value/GARP Investor, Semiconductor & Financial Analysis, Electronics MEng
LPKF looks a bit expensive after its recent share price run, even on @BrainyMarsupial's bullish meeting notes, which see at least three players ordering glass-substrate machines this year. Revenue remains difficult to forecast and a higher valuation cannot be counted on, which makes it hard to add more. x.com x.com
LPKF's valuation is too high for a glass-substrate story that may not take off for two to three years. Expectations have shifted from late 2026 toward 2028, and if the story starts in three years rather than one, valuation matters more than whether the thesis is right, like buying a stock at 35x sales five years early. A post the author replies to says glass core substrates for advanced packaging are no longer an if, but a crawl-walk-run toward 2028-29. x.com x.com
LPKF's stock got ahead of itself, and at around €12 it is worth watching rather than buying, becoming seriously interesting below €10. The glass-substrate thesis is intact: LPKF now sizes its 2030 addressable market at €1.7B, up from €500M, targets 70% share, and is negotiating 2027 ramp orders. But H1 revenue was only €36.5M with negative EBIT and free cash flow, and a steeper ramp could need capital. Next, LPKF must prove it has won a place in the production equipment stack. x.com
LPKF's glass-substrate story got priced in far ahead of reality, and high-volume scaling is still a 2027+ story. Its raised €1.7B 2030 TAM overstates the obtainable market once competitors, yields and dual-sourcing kick in, and the CEO said it is premature to call a supply-chain breakthrough. H1 revenue fell 38.3% to €36.5M as solar collapsed, adjusted EBIT was -€10.4M, and restructuring costs eat 3-4% of revenue. LIDE remains strategically important; 2028 margin execution is the thing to watch. … Show more
LPKF Laser & Electronics could still reach a $3–4 billion valuation by 2028–2029, though it now looks close to fairly valued in the near term. The path will be volatile: machine sales are lumpy, the machines last a long time, and the company still needs to raise equity before it can deliver all the machines it hopes to sell. x.com x.com
LPKF's core business is terrible, and the CEO's new LIDE target, raising its 2030 addressable market from €500 million to €1.7 billion, shifts attention to an area where nothing can yet be disproven. There is still no meaningful sign of LIDE in the order book. Revenue fell to €36.5 million from €59.2 million, order intake more than halved to €19.9 million, and adjusted EBIT fell to −€10.4 million. Electronics, carrier of the future narrative, grew just €0.6 million and lost the most. x.com
LPKF faces mostly lumpy, cancelable pilot-line revenue until 2029, while the market already prices in much of its glass substrate option. Volume demand for its glass equipment hinges on TSMC and NVIDIA choosing glass for CoPoS panel packaging; that wave lands around 2028-29 and could slip to end-2030 on warpage and yield issues. Absolics' and Semco's 2027 plans are qualification. The real signals are TSMC's CoPoS tool-vendor selection and an LPKF order above EUR 10M naming a Tier-1 customer. … Show more
LPKF Laser & Electronics is a bullish idea, set out in a brief write-up. x.com
LPKF's management credibility is the biggest concern after years of overpromising. It missed 2024 and 2025 guidance and is on track to miss 2026, needing H2 revenue of twice its €34.7 million backlog. Expected Q2 production orders for LIDE systems did not arrive and were pushed to H2, and its €1.7 billion advanced-packaging TAM assumes everyone switches fully to glass in 2030. Its technology is great and it leads in TGV, but glass substrates need a couple more years to penetrate meaningfully. … Show more
LPKF's risk-to-reward is no longer attractive after a 60% run in a few days with no fundamental change at the company. With the valuation that much higher, the risk is now greater than the reward, even though the upside could still be huge. The thesis itself is intact, and quarterly earnings don't change it: the ramp that matters starts next year. x.com x.com
LPKF Laser is a small-priced option on glass substrates becoming the next generation of AI chip packaging, with 4-10x upside if glass wins. It owns LIDE, the only working laser process that drills precise holes in glass without cracking it. Intel has committed to high-volume glass by 2030, Samsung is piloting and TSMC is evaluating. At a 293M EUR market cap it is pre-revenue inflection with no meaningful EBITDA, which is the point of the bet. x.com
LPKF Laser & Electronics and Schmid Group shares should deflate fast because glass-core substrates are not expected to be adopted until 2030, per @AtlasShrug1 citing @pequityresearch, a long wait for any ramp. x.com
