DON7SPY
Industrial Engineer, MBA Finance, Data/Supply-Chain Background, Options Analysis
AST SpaceMobile's promised revenue keeps failing to arrive while it burns cash. Q1 2026 revenue of $14.7M missed the $39M estimate by 62%, the $191M net loss far exceeded the $76M expected, and EPS of -$0.66 missed -$0.20. It burned $427M in one quarter against $3.5B of cash, about eight quarters of runway, and the stock fell 10% after hours. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are not buys because their sales multiples are too high, even after the selloff. Rocket Lab trades at 30x sales after a 14% drawdown, while AST SpaceMobile trades at 138x sales. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's ~$20B valuation prices in years of growth despite only $31M in revenue last quarter, leaving expectations vulnerable to an unwind even as the business progresses. Space communications remains attractive long term, but a sustained loss of $50.70 could deepen the correction toward $19-35; that move is not certain. Holding support and reclaiming $60-66 by month-end would improve the outlook. A 10-15% market correction could also cause a selloff without implying business failure. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's progress toward its goals and revenue projections is good, but the question is how much future hype is already priced into the valuation. The bull thesis still holds, though not strongly enough to buy more in the $80s, and less-known opportunities look more appealing. x.comÂ
SpaceX and Amazon's unlimited resources and talent make AST SpaceMobile an unwise investment. Buying it means competing with both. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's negative fundamentals make this a time for patience. Trailing net income is -$811 million, free cash flow -$1.74 billion and EPS -$2.14; wait for a catalyst change, specifically growing earnings. x.comÂ