Tomislav Marinovic
Engineer, AI Value-Chain Research
AbCellera has leverage as AI labs move into biology, because they will eventually need to build wet labs, partner with someone who has them or buy one. With Anthropic, OpenAI, Google and Meta pushing in, AbCellera's antibody foundry could put it a decade ahead. AI can design molecules, but someone must make and test them. AbCellera could monetize that by licensing a model built on its data or opening its foundry to validate AI-designed antibodies, though the idea is not fully worked through. x.comÂ
AbCellera remains considerably undervalued even at UBS's $18 target because that figure accounts for ABCL635 alone, not the rest of the pipeline. UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating, but one price increase at a time. x.com x.comÂ
AbCellera would deserve a $20-30 share price if it clears Phase 3 trials. Reaching the high end of that range before data arrives would suggest hype getting ahead of reality. x.comÂ
AbCellera's premium valuation looks risky given its slow revenue growth and a 24% short float. x.comÂ
AbCellera's excellent Phase 2 data validates AI-augmented antibody discovery and commercialization as the future of medicine. Any large pullback would be a chance to add. x.com x.comÂ
AbCellera Biologics is a high-risk moonshot with an interesting setup as its pipeline moves into the clinic. 2025 revenue rose to $75.1M from $28.8M, the net loss narrowed, and it ended the year with about $561M in cash and securities plus roughly $135M of non-dilutive government funding. It advanced two programs into clinical trials, two more into IND/CTA-enabling work, and has 19 partner molecules in the clinic. x.comÂ
AbCellera may be totally disrupted by LigandForge, which first looked like it could be the catalyst for the company. x.com x.comÂ
AbCellera is being re-rated from a contract research vendor into a co-development asset owner. Its Jazz Pharmaceuticals deal to co-develop T-cell engagers for GI and solid tumors lifts fair value over 20%, per several analysts. Interim Phase 1 data for ABCL635, for menopausal hot flashes, showed strong safety, no liver toxicity and monthly dosing potential. It has 14 clinical molecules and 40 partner programs, and $655M of liquidity, including government funding, all but removes bankruptcy risk. … Show more
Absci is a binary-risk biotech, either a multibagger or a total failure, and less tempting than AbCellera's AI antibody platform. Its losses are large and persistent, and as cash dwindles more dilution should follow, with the share count still rising. Unlike AbCellera, it lacks solid partner programs and a robust build-out. The stock is stuck between $2.50 and $6.50: bad trial data could send it back to the bottom, while positive data or a new partnership could break it out. x.comÂ
AbCellera's $200M offering looks bullish, because dilution is not always negative when it pulls revenue forward or is accretive long term. As @JackPrescottX notes, the company already had $675M of available liquidity, and the raise suggests it plans to take ABCL635 all the way to market rather than partner it. Any extended dip is a buying opportunity. x.comÂ
The AI and biology basket now adds AbCellera and Hims & Hers and looks set to destroy the market over the next 10 years. ImmunityBio is the immune system's operating system, Nautilus is the Tesla of proteomics, Recursion is superhuman biology-chemistry AI, AbCellera is the machine that can hit any target in the body, and Hims & Hers is the dominant direct-to-consumer distribution layer. x.comÂ