Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Absci is a binary-risk biotech, either a multibagger or a total failure, and less tempting than AbCellera's AI antibody platform. Its losses are large and persistent, and as cash dwindles more dilution should follow, with the share count still rising. Unlike AbCellera, it lacks solid partner programs and a robust build-out. The stock is stuck between $2.50 and $6.50: bad trial data could send it back to the bottom, while positive data or a new partnership could break it out. x.com
Absci's pipeline looks no further along than it was years ago, yet the stock has risen with the biotech sector. x.com
AbCellera Biologics is a high-risk moonshot with an interesting setup as its pipeline moves into the clinic. 2025 revenue rose to $75.1M from $28.8M, the net loss narrowed, and it ended the year with about $561M in cash and securities plus roughly $135M of non-dilutive government funding. It advanced two programs into clinical trials, two more into IND/CTA-enabling work, and has 19 partner molecules in the clinic. x.com
Biotech is the next AI trade, as AI turns drug discovery from a 10-year guessing game into a data problem while investors still treat the sector like a casino. Tempus AI uses a large clinical dataset for AI diagnostics; Recursion maps over a trillion cells with Genentech and Sanofi as partners; CRISPR Therapeutics has catalysts before end-2026; Absci designs antibodies with generative AI and starts Phase 2; Schrödinger sells physics-plus-AI design software and posted a surprise profit. x.com … Show more
AbCellera looks deeply undervalued against private AI drug-discovery valuations. It is worth about $4B in public markets, while DeepMind spinout Isomorphic Labs is reportedly seeking a valuation of $40B or more in private markets. x.com
AbCellera's premium valuation looks risky given its slow revenue growth and a 24% short float. x.com
Absci insiders are buying ahead of the ABS-201 interim readouts that now define the company's value. Outside directors Frans Van Houten, former Philips CEO, and Menelas Pangalos, former AstraZeneca biopharma R&D head, raised their stakes 172% and 527% in open-market trades, with no compensation incentive to support the stock. Chief Innovation Officer Andreas Busch bought $229K on March 12, 2026, nine days into his announced retirement, when retiring executives usually sell. x.com
AbCellera is an elite generator of drug call options, and ABCL635 just delivered. The company reported positive top-line Phase 2 results showing significant reductions in the frequency and severity of vasomotor symptoms with a favorable tolerability profile. The stock has gone up and down, but the core idea of proven antibody drug discovery with asymmetric upside remains. x.com x.com
AbCellera's excellent Phase 2 data validates AI-augmented antibody discovery and commercialization as the future of medicine. Any large pullback would be a chance to add. x.com x.com
Pharma, biotech and genomics stocks could benefit as frontier AI accelerates drug design, which may help explain the health sector's recent strength. Anthropic's Mythos 5 sped up parts of its protein design work about 10x, proposed an E. coli binding mechanism later validated by an outside lab, and beat purpose-built models on AAV gene therapy predictions. Biology capabilities appear restricted and Anthropic plans its own drugs, so the gain depends on pharma eventually adopting such models. … Show more
AbCellera's $200M offering looks bullish, because dilution is not always negative when it pulls revenue forward or is accretive long term. As @JackPrescottX notes, the company already had $675M of available liquidity, and the raise suggests it plans to take ABCL635 all the way to market rather than partner it. Any extended dip is a buying opportunity. x.com
