Arny Trezzi
Independent Investor, Former Equity Analyst, Asymmetric Opportunities
AbCellera is an elite generator of drug call options, and ABCL635 just delivered. The company reported positive top-line Phase 2 results showing significant reductions in the frequency and severity of vasomotor symptoms with a favorable tolerability profile. The stock has gone up and down, but the core idea of proven antibody drug discovery with asymmetric upside remains. x.com x.comÂ
AbCellera is being re-rated from a contract research vendor into a co-development asset owner. Its Jazz Pharmaceuticals deal to co-develop T-cell engagers for GI and solid tumors lifts fair value over 20%, per several analysts. Interim Phase 1 data for ABCL635, for menopausal hot flashes, showed strong safety, no liver toxicity and monthly dosing potential. It has 14 clinical molecules and 40 partner programs, and $655M of liquidity, including government funding, all but removes bankruptcy risk. … Show more
AbCellera would deserve a $20-30 share price if it clears Phase 3 trials. Reaching the high end of that range before data arrives would suggest hype getting ahead of reality. x.comÂ
AbCellera may be totally disrupted by LigandForge, which first looked like it could be the catalyst for the company. x.com x.comÂ
AbCellera Biologics is a high-risk moonshot with an interesting setup as its pipeline moves into the clinic. 2025 revenue rose to $75.1M from $28.8M, the net loss narrowed, and it ended the year with about $561M in cash and securities plus roughly $135M of non-dilutive government funding. It advanced two programs into clinical trials, two more into IND/CTA-enabling work, and has 19 partner molecules in the clinic. x.comÂ
AbCellera Biologics is breaking through its September value area as call flow picks up, putting the upside volume point of control in view as a target. x.comÂ
AbCellera's premium valuation looks risky given its slow revenue growth and a 24% short float. x.comÂ
Absci is a binary-risk biotech, either a multibagger or a total failure, and less tempting than AbCellera's AI antibody platform. Its losses are large and persistent, and as cash dwindles more dilution should follow, with the share count still rising. Unlike AbCellera, it lacks solid partner programs and a robust build-out. The stock is stuck between $2.50 and $6.50: bad trial data could send it back to the bottom, while positive data or a new partnership could break it out. x.comÂ
AbCellera's excellent Phase 2 data validates AI-augmented antibody discovery and commercialization as the future of medicine. Any large pullback would be a chance to add. x.com x.comÂ
AbCellera remains considerably undervalued even at UBS's $18 target because that figure accounts for ABCL635 alone, not the rest of the pipeline. UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating, but one price increase at a time. x.com x.comÂ
AbCellera looks deeply undervalued against private AI drug-discovery valuations. It is worth about $4B in public markets, while DeepMind spinout Isomorphic Labs is reportedly seeking a valuation of $40B or more in private markets. x.comÂ
