The Trade Desk is vulnerable because Amazon has a comparable ad platform and a habit of ruthlessly eating competitors, a bigger concern than AI disruption. Its gross profit versus opex picture looks far weaker than AppLovin's, so its trajectory inspires much less confidence. x.com 

The Trade Desk's story broke when its CEO said it wasn't competing with Amazon because it was the open internet, a clear sign of denial. Advertisers spend for return on investment and care about little else. x.com 

The Trade Desk's short-term upside from ChatGPT monetization is undervalued as OpenAI moves to ads. At $22, down from $139, it is priced for distress or disruption even though the business seems to be doing okay, leaving perhaps 40-50% upside back to the low $30s on mean reversion. Conviction is not high. x.com  x.com 

The Trade Desk looks like a falling knife after a quarter that broke its growth story, though a turnaround remains possible. Per an earnings recap, Q2 revenue of $715M missed its own $750M guidance as growth slowed to 3%, Q3 guidance of at least $650M implies a 12% YoY decline, and an executive exodus followed. A drop toward $11 would make it worth reconsidering. x.com 

The Trade Desk's deceleration is structural, not macro, as its Q3 guidance shows. Per @StockSavvyShay, Q2 revenue was $715M against $752M expected, a miss that could be shrugged off, but Q3 revenue guidance of $650M fell far short of the Street's $808M, with EBITDA guided to $160M against $343M. The 21% drop is the market finally believing the company. x.com 

The Trade Desk's neutrality remains an advantage over Amazon and Google, which both sell inventory and help decide where advertisers spend. Many brands, especially those competing with Amazon, don't trust it with their customer data, clean room or not. Retention above 95% for over a decade argues against claims that Trade Desk delivers worse return on ad spend, though that debate will be settled in time. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Trade Desk is not a buy even at $13 because founder Jeff Green, who still runs the company, no longer earns trust. Management made promises it failed to deliver, and Green replaced nearly the entire team in the past year, a major red flag that raises the question of whether he, not the ousted managers, is the real problem. Fundamentals point to disruption: revenue growth fell from 28% to 3%, gross margin from 82% to 74%, and operating income is shrinking fast. x.com  x.com 

Amazon is eating the advertising lunch of both The Trade Desk and AppLovin. The Trade Desk fell 20% after a massive earnings miss and another 15% the next day, with no recovery in sight, while AppLovin has dropped as well. x.com  x.com 

The Trade Desk is basically priced for bankruptcy, so a strong mean-reversion move could come soon. x.com 

The Trade Desk's financial trends keep imploding, with its revenue guide 20% worse than already beaten-down expectations. Its founder and CEO's optimism about the future does not change that. x.com