The Trade Desk is vulnerable because Amazon has a comparable ad platform and a habit of ruthlessly eating competitors, a bigger concern than AI disruption. Its gross profit versus opex picture looks far weaker than AppLovin's, so its trajectory inspires much less confidence. x.com 

The Trade Desk is probably dead money for a while, with some of its biggest clients auditing its past billing practices. It is very possible those ad dollars start shifting to other platforms. x.com 

The Trade Desk's neutrality remains an advantage over Amazon and Google, which both sell inventory and help decide where advertisers spend. Many brands, especially those competing with Amazon, don't trust it with their customer data, clean room or not. Retention above 95% for over a decade argues against claims that Trade Desk delivers worse return on ad spend, though that debate will be settled in time. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Trade Desk is the worst stock ever seen, now down 50% since CEO Jeff Green bought $150 million of shares a few months ago, a purchase that is hard to square with the numbers he saw. Amazon's growing ads business is a big part of the damage. x.com  x.com 

Amazon's retail business makes it an unattractive way to own ANT exposure now that hyperscalers are no longer necessary for it. x.com 

The Trade Desk can be bought for less than half the price its CEO paid for nearly $150 million of shares in March. He has not sold any of those shares since. x.com 

Amazon is eating the advertising lunch of both The Trade Desk and AppLovin. The Trade Desk fell 20% after a massive earnings miss and another 15% the next day, with no recovery in sight, while AppLovin has dropped as well. x.com  x.com 

Amazon's accelerating AWS growth at high margins shows the strength of its moat, but returns on heavy capex remain unproven. AWS grew 39% to $46B, its fastest growth in nearly five years, at a 38.7% operating margin; Amazon posted record operating income. Online stores grew 2%, while ads grew 11%, down from 26% last quarter. Trailing free cash flow fell to -$42.4B as net capex reached $210.7B. Returns on about $220B of planned 2026 capex remain the open question, with free cash flow the test. … Show more

The Trade Desk's short-term upside from ChatGPT monetization is undervalued as OpenAI moves to ads. At $22, down from $139, it is priced for distress or disruption even though the business seems to be doing okay, leaving perhaps 40-50% upside back to the low $30s on mean reversion. Conviction is not high. x.com  x.com 

The prospect of trillion-dollar revenue makes the bearish case for Amazon hard to accept. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says no business has reached that scale, but there may be two in the next 5–10 years. x.com