Namzes Cycles
Hurst Cycle & Technical Analyst, Commodities/Crypto/Equity Indices, Risk Management Background
Pfizer's CEO just bought $1 million of shares while the stock trades below its 200-week moving average, an insider purchase worth noting. The dividend yields 6.4%. x.comÂ
Pfizer is the kind of stock that should heavily outperform when the AI bubble pops. A dip on news that its CFO is returning to the consumer sector leaves it below 9x earnings with a 6.7% dividend yield, a payout of only around 60% of earnings. x.comÂ
Pfizer has reached the point where all the negative news is priced in, and its 6-7% dividend pays holders while they wait. Earnings are done, though the stock has tested patience. x.comÂ
Pfizer is a true safe haven that looks cheap at $28 a share, trading below 10 times adjusted earnings. Its 6.1% dividend has been paid for more than 349 quarters in a row, a remarkable record, and sentiment across biotech is strong after news from Moderna and Merck. x.comÂ
Pfizer is cheap against its cash earnings at about 8 times, while drugmakers usually get 14 times. Fourteen times next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, puts fair value at about $48.49-$61.71, so the $27.02 price sits 44% under the low end. This is a levels-only screen off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Pfizer looks set to rebound toward $30-$35 after about $2M of insider buying around $25. If Moderna can rally this year, so can this once-beloved pharma name. x.comÂ
Biotech stocks are breaking out of a five-year range because the threat from oil and interest rates was priced in years ago. Many of the most undervalued growth stocks are now in biotech, and research discovery is getting a boost from AI, making it perhaps the sector with most to gain from AI productivity. Charts support it: daily volume spikes have tended to mark major bottoms, the weekly held its quarterly averages to form a base, and the monthly shows a healthy pullback to the one-year EMA. … Show more
Moderna looks expensive even under a bullish scenario. A base model values Covid, flu and RSV at $10B, oncology at $15B and the platform at $5B: a $30B market cap, or $75 a share versus $135, about 45% downside. Even $10B of oncology sales by 2035, one of the best pharma launches ever, at 8x sales and a 10% discount rate gives about $120. The CMV trial failed, norovirus is at risk, rivals are developing mRNA flu vaccines, and BofA's raised $170 target looks unjustified. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more