GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Pfizer is cheap against its cash earnings at about 8 times, while drugmakers usually get 14 times. Fourteen times next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, puts fair value at about $48.49-$61.71, so the $27.02 price sits 44% under the low end. This is a levels-only screen off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Pfizer is a true safe haven that looks cheap at $28 a share, trading below 10 times adjusted earnings. Its 6.1% dividend has been paid for more than 349 quarters in a row, a remarkable record, and sentiment across biotech is strong after news from Moderna and Merck. x.comÂ
Pfizer looks to be forming a multi-year low and should be a major beneficiary of AI. It pays a 6.3% dividend at a forward P/E of 8, though one more low may come in the fall. x.comÂ
Pfizer's CEO just bought $1 million of shares while the stock trades below its 200-week moving average, an insider purchase worth noting. The dividend yields 6.4%. x.comÂ
Pfizer looks set to rebound toward $30-$35 after about $2M of insider buying around $25. If Moderna can rally this year, so can this once-beloved pharma name. x.comÂ
Pfizer has reached the point where all the negative news is priced in, and its 6-7% dividend pays holders while they wait. Earnings are done, though the stock has tested patience. x.comÂ
Pfizer is the kind of stock that should heavily outperform when the AI bubble pops. A dip on news that its CFO is returning to the consumer sector leaves it below 9x earnings with a 6.7% dividend yield, a payout of only around 60% of earnings. x.comÂ
Significant discounts to broader pharmaceutical industry valuations on projected 2031 earnings make some high-quality mid-cap biotech stocks attractive. Many have cleared Phase 3 trials or reached more advanced stages, and some may reach profitability without more capital, an advantage if financing tightens. Selling these stocks to chase speculative biotech or large pharma at historically elevated multiples makes little sense. x.comÂ
Bristol Myers Squibb and Merck look expensive given the market's optimism about their patent cliffs. Bristol Myers trades at 13x and Merck at 16x 2028 EV/FCF, versus Regeneron at 9.5x, which is ridiculous. As @PCM_bio notes, Opdivo loses exclusivity in 587 days and Bristol has done little to address that or its other patent expirations. x.com x.comÂ
Abivax's risk-reward still makes a ton of sense because buyout comps point to a large premium. @seedy19tron's analysis suggests a 105% premium to the current price, about $218 a share or roughly $20 billion, would get a deal over the line for Pfizer, Lilly, Takeda, AbbVie or AstraZeneca. x.comÂ
