Late Stage Capitalism
Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience
European Lithium trades at about a 30% discount to the value implied by its binding merger with Critical Metals, and that gap should close before the deal completes. As @warrenShirley15 notes, each European Lithium share converts to 0.035 Critical Metals shares. The combined company is stronger, the 34% of Critical Metals shares European Lithium holds will be cancelled at closing, and Critical Metals gains full ownership of the valuable Tanbreez rare earths asset. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Lithium Americas looks cheap against its estimated fair value of $5.45-$6.93, trading 41% below the low end of that range. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
Critical Metals' Tanbreez project now has a formally approved mine plan, advancing its rare-earth supply case. Greenland's September 29 approval runs through 2050; Tanbreez holds its only rare-earth exploitation permit, and a refinery study projects $1.8–2.2B in annual revenue. An October 22 European Lithium vote could put 100% of Tanbreez within reach. A falling-wedge move still needs to clear the $7.08 trigger. x.com
The Shortlist targets companies it tags as pump-and-dumps, industry bubbles, constrained-float cases, potential fraud or overleveraged. Its Oct. 23 realistic-value estimates imply large downside, including 79% for ReAlloy, 53% for Critical Metals, 60% for Infleqtion and 62% for Quantinuum. x.com
Critical Metals' pump looks over because mining in Greenland will be extremely difficult logistically, which most investors do not grasp. Last week's rally lifted almost every small stock with Greenland in its name. x.com
Critical Metals is a Howard Lutnick 'grift' play that can make money today, though production is not expected until late 2028-2029. Per the company, Greenland approved the transfer of a 50.5% interest in the Tanbreez rare-earth project, lifting its stake to 92.5% and giving it full control. Tanbreez is among the largest known heavy rare-earth resources, and the US Export-Import Bank has sent a nonbinding letter of interest for up to $120M as the West diversifies away from China. x.com
Critical Metals is an under-followed pure-play on heavy rare earths, which the West cannot supply at scale. China refines nearly all the dysprosium and terbium that stop EV-motor and missile magnets from melting, and a new mine takes 5-7 years to permit. Its Greenland Tanbreez deposit is among the biggest outside China, with multi-year upside if financed into production. It is pre-revenue, so slipping financing or permitting would cut it hard; an early-stage bet, not a core hold. x.com
REMX looks attractive because the market underestimates the massive demand for rare earth metals from robotics over the next decade. The ETF offers exposure without having to pick a winning company. About 30% is lithium stocks rather than rare earths, but lithium demand should also rise with electric and autonomous vehicles. x.com x.com x.com x.com