Micron is far cheaper than the tech sector, trading at about 5x earnings while tech overall sits at a 21x P/E, below Liberation Day levels per @MikeZaccardi. x.com
Trevor Scott
Founder & Portfolio Manager of Tidefall Capital Management
Micron's revenue grew faster than its stock over the past year, leaving it cheaper on trailing earnings. Quarterly revenue rose from $11.3B to $54.2B, while the stock rose from about $198 to $878 and trailing P/E fell from roughly 24x to 11.6x. x.com
Micron deserves 10-12x forward earnings rather than 6.2x, and its latest quarter only strengthened the bull case. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% year over year, and EPS $33.42, up 1,003%; next-quarter guidance is $62B revenue and $38.15 EPS versus estimates of $58B and $35.92. The market fears growth and demand could suddenly stop, but no one can time when or if that happens, whether in 1, 2, 3 or 5 years. It might not deserve 20x. x.com
Micron looks expensive on price-to-book at about 8x versus a historical average of about 2x, and relying on forward P/E for such a cyclical business can be dangerous. x.com
Micron can't meet customer demand, giving it rare visibility at a valuation of about 5x next year's earnings. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are extending agreements into 2031, which gives certainty of demand and lets Micron plan capacity investments with confidence. The stock is now about $1,000, and with potential EPS beats over the next few quarters its forward P/E could be around 5, unthinkable about six months ago. x.com x.com
Micron may be the cheapest fast-growing tech stock in America, at 14x earnings and 7x forward earnings. x.com
If Micron has only two years of decent forecasts, its limited visibility warrants a lower multiple, not a higher one. x.com
Micron would be worth about $1,500 at its 10-year historical average P/E. x.com
Micron is more attractive than Tesla because its earnings and growth-adjusted valuations are dramatically cheaper. At $897, Micron trades at 5 times analysts' next-year earnings versus Tesla at 186 times near $360; PEG ratios are 0.07 and nearly 10. Micron just printed about $74 in trailing EPS after a surge that caught most of the Street flat-footed, while Tesla's roughly $1.08 has been shrinking. At these prices, the preference is Micron. x.com
Micron Technology looks expensive on cyclical-earnings rules. Benjamin Graham warned that cyclical companies look cheapest at the peak of the cycle, when earnings are highest, and advised paying no more than 15 times the average earnings of the last three years. Setting forward earnings aside, Micron's average P/E over the last three years is 37.25. x.com
Micron's cash generation puts a rising floor under the stock: it is effectively raising more than $160 of cash per share on a forward basis, about $1 every two trading days. Even on a conservative path of $160, $100, $80, $50 and $40 a year as earnings fall, it would earn $430 of cash per share in five years, against a premarket price of $830. x.com