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Agrippa Investments

Hyper-Growth Stock Research

7 Jul, 23:53Latest

New Era's land value should be discounted for regulatory risk until its power is truly secured, though the base case still values that land at about 6x Northland's $20M. Signed power isn't secured power: even with a Vistra contract, behind-the-meter colocation must clear ERCOT and PUCT review under SB6, guided at about 180 days but likely longer. The JV will likely be signed before approval, so a counterparty will price in that risk, and a drawn-out process could cause costly delays. x.com x.com

NUAI

6 Jul, 11:28

New Era Energy & Digital's appeal is its proposed capital-light model, with a limited partner funding most of the project equity, since it cannot fund that alone without heavy dilution or debt. Northland's favorable valuation is flawed: it values the campus off one 2030 EBITDA year at a 19x multiple borrowed from Digital Realty and Equinix and treats the company as a flat 45% holder, ignoring the senior LP preferred return and GP promote. And it assumes no dilution or debt to fund that slice. x.com x.com x.com

NUAI

mon

Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing

22 Sep

NUAI

New Era Energy & Digital will have leverage because it has locked in power that data centers cannot be built without. It secured up to 207 MW for 20 years, expected in Q3 2027, when power will be extremely constrained. With the power agreement signed, the next step is securing a tenant and seeing how far the company can take it. x.com x.com

Stocker-Man

Long-Term Growth Investor & Swing Trader, Public Investing Journal

12 Sep

NUAI

NUAI could become very valuable by delivering the power AI data centers increasingly struggle to secure. Its 493-acre TCDC campus near Odessa, Texas plans 207 MW, then 550 MW, and up to 1.4 GW long term. The first two phases use behind-the-meter generation without ERCOT interconnection, in a Permian Basin site with gas, fiber and water. Permits are advancing, and power delivery could start by end-2027. It still needs a credible anchor tenant to prove demand, making it a small, speculative bet. … Show more

Deep Sail Capital

Founder & CIO of Deep Sail Capital, Long/Short GARP, Quality/Growth/Micro-Caps

6 Oct

NUAI

New Era Energy & Digital's shifting data-center story is not credible. @AtlasShrug1 notes the partner keeps changing, from PDI to Stream and a hyperscaler to talk of Anthropic via Theseus, with no LOI. The Sharon AI JV, what NUAI paid and what it got, says everything about the company. The PPA gives Vistra 5% equity for the right to buy power, and new CEO Nelson has been involved with Gray and New Era Helium since 2024, so he is not exactly new. x.com x.com x.com

Jason Luongo

Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies

27 Sep

NUAI

New Era Energy & Digital is lining up power and permits for a 1.4GW AI campus, Texas Critical Data Centers, on 493 acres in Ector County. It signed a 20-year deal to buy up to 207MW from Vistra's Odessa gas plant, with power expected in Q3 2027, and Vistra gets a 5% non-voting stake in the part it powers. Construction permits are in hand, but the data center business is pre-revenue, making it the highest-risk name on the list. x.com

Teng Yan

Founder of Tessara, AI Buildout & Supply-Chain Research

11 May

VST

NEE

TLN

CEG

Power is now the binding constraint on AI compute, making power suppliers like Vistra, Constellation, Talen and NextEra the clean AI infrastructure trade. About 20 earnings calls showed Vistra turning Meta's nuclear demand into contracted revenue, Exelon warning on PJM reliability and NRG sizing ERCOT's large-load pipeline at 36 GW. AI infrastructure is becoming investment-grade, with Hut 8 issuing the first single-sponsor IG construction bond for a data center. x.com

DVB

Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder

5 Jul

NUAI

New Era Energy & Digital's data-center plan looks risky because building with borrowed money from nothing means high interest costs and squeezed margins. As a small player with no experience, it faces liquidation risk if capacity is underutilized after a market change. Even if NUAI puts up capital for its joint venture with Stream, its revenue share looks small, raising the question of what NUAI actually contributes. x.com x.com x.com

Futurist

Photonics, Space, AI Infrastructure & Robotics Commentary

1 Oct

VST

Vistra's story is easy to understand: AI data centers need far more power, and Vistra already owns the power plants. AWS and Meta have signed long-term nuclear deals for about 3.8 GW, some of whose upside isn't even in 2027 guidance yet, so demand is obvious before earnings fully catch up. x.com

Jason Luongo

Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies

22 Sep

VST

Vistra's contracted growth over the next 18-24 months is not yet in its numbers. It has about 3,800MW of 20-year nuclear agreements with Meta and Amazon: Meta purchases across three plants start late this year and Amazon's 1,200MW Comanche Peak deal delivers from late 2027. It is also buying about 5,500MW of Cogentrix gas plants, and its $7.4-7.8B 2027 EBITDA range excludes both Cogentrix and the Meta contracts. It is 94% hedged for 2027 and 72% for 2028. x.com

Late Stage Capitalism

Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience

22 Sep

NUAI

New Era Energy & Digital's new colocation deal does not change the bearish view: its economics are good, not great, and revenue is a year out. With 207MW of gross power, only about 150MW of IT load and $1.5B of capex, the deal implies roughly $75M a year of profit on a 10-year payback, beginning in the second half of 2027 at the earliest. x.com x.com

LongGameEquity

Long-Term Investor, AI & Software

5 Oct

VST

Vistra's roughly $4.2B in government financing to upgrade three of its four nuclear plants is very bullish, because nuclear power is growing scarce while AI data-center demand explodes. As an unregulated power producer, Vistra has more exposure to market-based electricity prices. The AI trade is becoming a power trade, and more nuclear deals should follow. x.com x.com

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