Late Stage Capitalism
Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience
New Era Energy & Digital's new colocation deal does not change the bearish view: its economics are good, not great, and revenue is a year out. With 207MW of gross power, only about 150MW of IT load and $1.5B of capex, the deal implies roughly $75M a year of profit on a 10-year payback, beginning in the second half of 2027 at the earliest. x.com x.com
New Era Energy & Digital already trades far beyond a speculative valuation, though revenue looks at least a year away. DGXX trades at under half its market cap, is more stable, already earns revenue and has more upside. The bull case rests on big ifs: tenants are unlikely to sign every phase at once, and a $600M company cannot build or finance that much at once, so it would have to dilute massively. @moninvestor counters that its West Texas power assets make it asymmetric. x.com x.com x.com
New Era Energy & Digital's data-center plan looks risky because building with borrowed money from nothing means high interest costs and squeezed margins. As a small player with no experience, it faces liquidation risk if capacity is underutilized after a market change. Even if NUAI puts up capital for its joint venture with Stream, its revenue share looks small, raising the question of what NUAI actually contributes. x.com x.com x.com
New Era Energy & Digital's shifting data-center story is not credible. @AtlasShrug1 notes the partner keeps changing, from PDI to Stream and a hyperscaler to talk of Anthropic via Theseus, with no LOI. The Sharon AI JV, what NUAI paid and what it got, says everything about the company. The PPA gives Vistra 5% equity for the right to buy power, and new CEO Nelson has been involved with Gray and New Era Helium since 2024, so he is not exactly new. x.com x.com x.com
New Era Energy & Digital will have leverage because it has locked in power that data centers cannot be built without. It secured up to 207 MW for 20 years, expected in Q3 2027, when power will be extremely constrained. With the power agreement signed, the next step is securing a tenant and seeing how far the company can take it. x.com x.com
Nebius's already-raised cash and expected customer prepayments should buffer its 2027 plans against a short-term debt-market freeze. Rising GPU rental prices could put new deals at $35m+/MW annually, up from last quarter's $20m-$25m, reducing estimated payback from 22 months to around a year. If Nebius deploys 1 GW next year at a one-year payback, equity value creation could be tremendous. x.com
Nebius looks cheaper against a year of stronger execution, leaving room for its shares to rise. EV/current ARR fell from 57x to 14x as quarterly revenue rose from $105M to $582M and adjusted EBITDA moved from -$21M to +$236M. The 5GW figure is a year-end contracted-power target, not live capacity. Per Polymarket, Dutch government AI plans could favor Amsterdam-based Nebius. Delivery still needs capital and power; Nebius borrows at about half CoreWeave's cost and gets customer prepayments. x.com … Show more
NUAI could become very valuable by delivering the power AI data centers increasingly struggle to secure. Its 493-acre TCDC campus near Odessa, Texas plans 207 MW, then 550 MW, and up to 1.4 GW long term. The first two phases use behind-the-meter generation without ERCOT interconnection, in a Permian Basin site with gas, fiber and water. Permits are advancing, and power delivery could start by end-2027. It still needs a credible anchor tenant to prove demand, making it a small, speculative bet. … Show more
2G Energy's growing orders and long service tail support its unusually cheap AI data-center power valuation. Nine-month 2026 orders exceed €880m, more than twice 2025 revenue; backlog runs into 2028 and service contracts last 15-20 years. Management first guided to €750-850m of revenue in 2028 and says units already sold could support over $100m in annual service revenue once running from mid-2027. At about 17x expected 2027 earnings, it looks cheapest in this space and is preferred to INNIO. … Show more
Neoclouds can be an incredible business only if they turn delivered GPUs into revenue on time. Power delays are harder to remedy than commissioning issues; idle GPUs earn nothing while financing costs mount, especially for smaller operators and those reliant on colocation. Energized sites and vertical control help, but GPUs or secured power alone are not enough. IREN has financing secured and Nebius looks less exposed to Musk's debt warning; smaller players may struggle to fund expansion. x.com … Show more
New Era's land value should be discounted for regulatory risk until its power is truly secured, though the base case still values that land at about 6x Northland's $20M. Signed power isn't secured power: even with a Vistra contract, behind-the-meter colocation must clear ERCOT and PUCT review under SB6, guided at about 180 days but likely longer. The JV will likely be signed before approval, so a counterparty will price in that risk, and a drawn-out process could cause costly delays. x.com x.com
Modine's cooling efficiency turns scarce data-center power into sellable compute, supporting demand for its equipment. Cooling uses 10-30% of site power; its machines deliver roughly 15-20% more cooling per watt than rivals. Separately, management's public probability buckets and customer timeline match a still-unconfirmed leaked pipeline; applying the reported conversion odds implies about $2.3B in FY2027 data-center revenue, above the top of guidance. Supply remains constrained. x.com x.com
