Deep Sail Capital
Founder & CIO of Deep Sail Capital, Long/Short GARP, Quality/Growth/Micro-Caps
New Era Energy & Digital's shifting data-center story is not credible. @AtlasShrug1 notes the partner keeps changing, from PDI to Stream and a hyperscaler to talk of Anthropic via Theseus, with no LOI. The Sharon AI JV, what NUAI paid and what it got, says everything about the company. The PPA gives Vistra 5% equity for the right to buy power, and new CEO Nelson has been involved with Gray and New Era Helium since 2024, so he is not exactly new. x.com x.com x.com
NUAI's new deal is dilutive, not a reason for a 33% rally: it committed to a $200 million credit line with only $68 million of liquidity, so it will need to raise equity and likely draw on its Macquarie facility, on top of 5% dilution in the deal. The project shrank from 450MW of self-generated power to 200MW bought through a PPA, making it a power shell. A PPA alone is worth about zero; its value only appears if a tenant signs. x.com x.com x.com x.com
New Era Energy & Digital's data-center plan looks risky because building with borrowed money from nothing means high interest costs and squeezed margins. As a small player with no experience, it faces liquidation risk if capacity is underutilized after a market change. Even if NUAI puts up capital for its joint venture with Stream, its revenue share looks small, raising the question of what NUAI actually contributes. x.com x.com x.com
New Era Energy & Digital's new colocation deal does not change the bearish view: its economics are good, not great, and revenue is a year out. With 207MW of gross power, only about 150MW of IT load and $1.5B of capex, the deal implies roughly $75M a year of profit on a 10-year payback, beginning in the second half of 2027 at the earliest. x.com x.com
New Era Energy & Digital will have leverage because it has locked in power that data centers cannot be built without. It secured up to 207 MW for 20 years, expected in Q3 2027, when power will be extremely constrained. With the power agreement signed, the next step is securing a tenant and seeing how far the company can take it. x.com x.com
Heavy AI-related borrowing with little to show for it is pressuring Oracle, IREN and Nebius shares. These stocks are beginning to trend lower. x.com
SHAZ is probably a short, with shady details about the company easy to find, but shorting it is unwise. The same team took NUAI up 20x from its bottom, SHAZ's SPAC NAV is $500 a share, and staggered unlocks give insiders reason to keep the price up in a thinly traded stock. x.com
New Era's land value should be discounted for regulatory risk until its power is truly secured, though the base case still values that land at about 6x Northland's $20M. Signed power isn't secured power: even with a Vistra contract, behind-the-meter colocation must clear ERCOT and PUCT review under SB6, guided at about 180 days but likely longer. The JV will likely be signed before approval, so a counterparty will price in that risk, and a drawn-out process could cause costly delays. x.com x.com
AI product, networking, compute and power demand could reward patient owners of Meta, Nokia, Oracle, Broadcom, IREN and Vistra. Meta's Muse could unlock massive revenue; free cash flow could recover when AI spending slows. Nokia works with Nvidia on AI-RAN and 6G. Oracle has $664B in obligations and massive potential reward from OpenAI. Broadcom's AI chip revenue rose 221% to $16.7B; IREN has a $9.7B Microsoft contract and 5 GW of power. AI power bottlenecks favor Vistra. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Nebius and CoreWeave results are constructive for SharonAI because the marginal price of scarce near-term AI compute is rising, and SharonAI has plenty left to sell. As of August 6 it had 212 MW secured and 92 MW uncontracted, up from 16 MW uncontracted on July 16. On consensus it trades at 0.8x 2027 EBITDA, versus 11.8x for Nebius, 9.9x for IREN and 5.6x for CoreWeave. It is early stage with higher execution risk, and uncontracted capacity hurts if pricing deteriorates. x.com x.com
NUAI could become very valuable by delivering the power AI data centers increasingly struggle to secure. Its 493-acre TCDC campus near Odessa, Texas plans 207 MW, then 550 MW, and up to 1.4 GW long term. The first two phases use behind-the-meter generation without ERCOT interconnection, in a Permian Basin site with gas, fiber and water. Permits are advancing, and power delivery could start by end-2027. It still needs a credible anchor tenant to prove demand, making it a small, speculative bet. … Show more
SharonAI looks untrustworthy: its 10-K falsely claimed NVIDIA as a shareholder. Per @DeepSailCapital, it once had a joint venture with NUAI that it "sold" and its management seems as shady as NUAI's, while a post the author replies to says customer ESDS is not legitimate and calls it a pump and dump. x.com x.com
