DON7SPY
Industrial Engineer, MBA Finance, Data/Supply-Chain Background, Options Analysis
Cloudflare cannot justify a bullish view at a 10000x revenue valuation. x.com
Cloudflare is extremely expensive at 44 times trailing twelve-month sales, a valuation that makes Datadog look cheap. x.com
Cloudflare deserves its premium multiple far more than CrowdStrike does. Cloudflare is growing about 40% against CrowdStrike's mid-20s, and it adds a call option on agentic expansion. Both trade at nosebleed valuations. x.com
Cloudflare at 38x NTM revenue and 150x NTM EBITDA is insane, so a decent return from here is unlikely even though it is the leader. That has never happened before without massive acceleration in growth rates and margin expansion. x.com
Cloudflare looks like it is in a blow-off top, with a valuation that has entered la-la land. It trades at about 230x one-year forward earnings, a 5.5 five-year PEG ratio and 45x sales, leaving holders at risk of a 50% correction. x.com
Cloudflare's importance becomes clearest during outages, when disruption exposes how much of the internet depends on its platform. That dependence makes the stock hard to sell despite its obscene valuation. x.com
Cloudflare and CrowdStrike valuations are in la-la land. Per a SergeyCYW comparison of growth per unit of EV/sales, Cloudflare trades at 34x sales and CrowdStrike at 30x. x.com
Cloudflare has one of the most ludicrous valuations relative to its actual performance. @ecommerceshares notes it has run since 2009 yet still has a -10% operating margin, surviving because fund managers keep buying the new stock it issues every quarter, equal to 18% of revenue, so breakeven is never required. x.com
Cloudflare is one of the names leading this market and likely to lead the next leg higher, as an emerging leader in data inference and a core piece of internet DNS infrastructure. That positioning helped it avoid sustained weakness like its 81% drawdown in 2022 and 50% pullback in April 2025. With the market within 3% of all-time highs, there is little reason to bottom fish in names still down 50%+, though Cloudflare remains very expensive. x.com x.com
Cloudflare's valuation, about 28.5x EV/ARR and 453x run-rate GAAP EBIT, leaves little room for its competitive risks. Its SASE and developer-platform businesses face Zscaler, Palo Alto and hyperscalers with far bigger budgets, and OpenAI and Anthropic may keep inference on their own backends. The bull case is crisp and arguably priced in: bot security and edge workloads matter more as agents spread, growth sped up from 27% to 34%, and weekly agent requests doubled in January. x.com