Cloudflare looks like it is in a blow-off top, with a valuation that has entered la-la land. It trades at about 230x one-year forward earnings, a 5.5 five-year PEG ratio and 45x sales, leaving holders at risk of a 50% correction. x.comÂ
Matt C
Cybersecurity Engineer, Bitcoin Background Since 2014
Cloudflare at 38x NTM revenue and 150x NTM EBITDA is insane, so a decent return from here is unlikely even though it is the leader. That has never happened before without massive acceleration in growth rates and margin expansion. x.comÂ
Cloudflare is a short because 45-50x sales is too much to pay for 35% growth. x.comÂ
Cloudflare deserves its premium multiple far more than CrowdStrike does. Cloudflare is growing about 40% against CrowdStrike's mid-20s, and it adds a call option on agentic expansion. Both trade at nosebleed valuations. x.comÂ
Cloudflare cannot justify a bullish view at a 10000x revenue valuation. x.comÂ
Cloudflare's valuation leaves almost no return even under generous assumptions, so buyers at $330 risk being patsies. If it grows 15% every year through 2041, with non-GAAP margins rising to 50% and a 6% terminal value, the stock would compound at only about 0.6% a year. x.comÂ
Cloudflare's importance becomes clearest during outages, when disruption exposes how much of the internet depends on its platform. That dependence makes the stock hard to sell despite its obscene valuation. x.comÂ
Cloudflare and CrowdStrike valuations are in la-la land. Per a SergeyCYW comparison of growth per unit of EV/sales, Cloudflare trades at 34x sales and CrowdStrike at 30x. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike is now more overvalued than Cloudflare, trading at 45-50x sales for barely 26% revenue growth, which are mediocre numbers. Cloudflare's drop after its earnings could be the same script for CrowdStrike. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cloudflare is one of the names leading this market and likely to lead the next leg higher, as an emerging leader in data inference and a core piece of internet DNS infrastructure. That positioning helped it avoid sustained weakness like its 81% drawdown in 2022 and 50% pullback in April 2025. With the market within 3% of all-time highs, there is little reason to bottom fish in names still down 50%+, though Cloudflare remains very expensive. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike and Cloudflare are likely flat until 2028-2030 even in the best case, and could be disasters for the next 3-5 years. Escaping requires Palantir- or Nvidia-style revenue acceleration and GAAP margin expansion, with double-digit sequential growth for many quarters over 3+ years. Without that there are no obvious incremental buyers, and once the charts break, institutions will run for the hills as they have before in these names, with zero valuation support. x.comÂ